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18Mar 2024

Technology Sector Review: 3/19/24

Monday|0 Comments

Apple Crisp? Could the world's second-largest company on the planet in Apple be ruffled enough to make a stand and try to reclaim the top spot? Monday was a good start for the name, but it CLOSED well off intraday highs, recording a mild bullish island reversal (gap up following a recent gap down). The stock added a pedestrian .6% although it encountering resistance at the 21-day EMA, and look for a possible move toward the round 180 number which was the site of a bearish descending triangle or head and shoulders pattern. April is around the corner and seasonality-wise, starts a strong run into summer last normally lasts until September, which curiously has a very bad track record over the last 5 years falling almost 10%. On its WEEKLY chart, last week did register a bullish harami, and I think these levels offer good risk/reward going into year-end with a stop below last week's lows. Another caveat is the MONTHLY chart which has sported three consecutive spinning top candles and is now back below the 180.42 cup base breakout from last June. The 180 level is important and must see a CLOSE above on March 29th, the last day of the month.

16Mar 2024

THE WEEK AHEAD: Starting 3/18/24

Saturday|0 Comments

"He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight" - Sun Tzu Dodgy Dow? As the hype with technology reigns, more specifically the semiconductors meteoric rise, the Dow that was gaining some of the spotlight in the latter part of 2023 has subsided. And its chart is displaying that melancholy. Perhaps one would say the Dow is meaningless but on this chart, one can see it has had the propensity to lead in years past as seen here. Truth be told since the start of the year the Dow has been lagging and could this be a canary in the coal mine if it breaks below this recent digestion and its 50-day SMA? On a YTD basis, the Dow has advanced by 3%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have risen by 6 and 7% respectively. This is a PRICE-weighted index (and the higher-priced names are more influential) so particular attention should be paid to UNH, which is below its 200-day SMA and 12% off its most recent 52-week highs. MSFT, the second largest component which we spoke about in our Friday Tech Note is the one to watch as it may have recorded a failed breakout Friday. It registered a spinning top candle the day after a CLOSE above a cup base pivot of 420.14, but give it the benefit of the doubt and remain bullish as triple witching may have skewed the technical picture Friday. One can see that UNH has done the damage and the Dow has held up but if Microsoft buckles that could be a shot across the bow.

15Mar 2024

Consumer Sector Review: 3/18/24

Friday|0 Comments

Amazon Vulnerable? Within the XLY there are two dominant forces in AMZN and TSLA. We know the latter has been lagging and AMZN is doing its best to keep the ETF afloat, but what if that pressure is weighing on the psyche of the stock? The daily chart below of the XLY shows it clinging on to its 50-day SMA, but the failure of the cup base breakout, lasting just 5 sessions, is notable. On a YTD basis, it is just one of only two major S&P sectors in the red down .4%, and TSLA has been one of the culprits (this is nothing new and notice here how the WEEKLY chart shows how soft it has been since hitting a wall at the very round 300 number last summer and it could be headed to par with all the big WEEKLY losses CLOSING near lows). The WEEKLY chart of AMZN shows back-to-back spinning top candles and the possibility of a bearish MACD crossover which occurred last September and witnessed a quick 20% haircut. Rounding out the top 4 components it should be no surprise there is bifurcation there, with HD bull flagging, and MCD clinging to its 200-day SMA.