Markets began Friday on a positive tone on the back of a jobs number, but fell the rest of the day. Bearish activity indeed, which has been popping up more and more. Weak finishes, especially after strong opens is not what the bulls want to see. We recorded two breakouts Friday with TSCO CCK both taking out cup with handle triggers of 101.38, 37.98 respectively. For the week, we had some breakouts performing admirably with MTB advancing 3.5% for the week after its 96.08 3 week tight breakout. HLSS advanced 7% on the week following its 16.54 3 week tight breakout, and XXIA was up 3.5% on the week after its 16.50 flat base breakout. Speaking of breakouts I have been getting questions about why not just front run the triggers if you like them so much. Well let me give you a few examples of some that reversed just before taking out their pivots. Friday EXPE SI YNDX all came very close to breaking out but never took out their specific triggers (EXPE 60.39, SI 105.24, YNDX 25.33). Wait for confirmation on strong trade. Some will take out triggers intraday only to fall back below them by the close. To me this is a red flag and I would exit the position as well by the close. JPM did this Friday taking out a 42.19 cup with handle trigger, then finished below it. It did not have sufficient volume to be considered legitimate either. More concerning to me is the defensive names are starting to look better, as XLU (utility ETF), HSY KO all look to reclaim their 10 week MAs. Economically sensitive names FDX CAT NUE having issues with 10 week resistance. AAPL has now last 7% in the last 2 weeks, and its own 10 week support is looking tenuous.
Stocks that can be bought as they take out the following specific triggers on firm trade are flat bases NOC 70.30, BEO 28.27, KMB 88.35. HOLX 22.26 in a cup base, and AOS 59.03, PSX 48.52 in 3 week tight patterns. Cup with handles are ASNA 22.28, EXPE 60.39, SWK 78.57, IVZ 26.33, LULU 79.06, BCS 15.10, LZB 15.64, YNDX 25.33, TSS 24.53, CPA 85.91. SI 105.24 in a double bottom with handle formation.
Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers include DRI HON BAX. DRI took out a 54.19 cup with handle trigger 9/12. PNRA BWLD, and newcomer CHUY all have performed well in the group. CMG JACK are starting to look worrisome. HON took out a 60.08 cup with handle trigger back on 9/13. It has received 10 week support and seems to be having issues with closing above the 62 handle for some time. A close above 62 would put it at 12 year highs. BAX curiously has the same exact breakout trigger of 60.08, which was also a cup with handle taken out 9/12. RMD EW both behaving well in the group.
Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are BA 72.05, KSU 76.95, IT 48.30. HLX CVG TDC E all retook their 10 week MAs Friday. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are ITT 21, FAST 45.60. DNKN retook its 40 week Friday.
Stocks that can be bought at 10 week support are CAM 54.25, TYC 27.55, EBAY 47.25. FTK MAR IR CXO EOG all found 10 week support Friday.
Stocks that can be bought at 40 week support are MFRM 32, DAL 10, ESV 52.05, HES 53, PXD 100. Stocks that found 40 week support Friday were XRAY HST OIS SLB BMY NUAN HAL NBL.
Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are PLD 34.05, AAPL 648, NTRS 46.55, SYMC 17.60, SBUX 48.40. ORCL lost 10 week support Friday. UTX can be shorted with a sell stop of 77.80 as it loses 40 week support. EXXI lost 40 week support Friday.
Stocks that can be shorted at 10 week resistance are RHT 56.80, FDX 88, CAT 87.25, RTN 56.60. Stocks that met 10 week resistance Friday were NKE UA NUE CTB CRUS CNI EMR CAT RDSA APC BRCM DUK ADI COH.
Stocks that can be shorted at 40 week resistance are BHI 45, HSP 34.10. NE CLR CTXS all met 40 week resistance Friday.
The author owns XXIA EWW TWTC.