Markets began the week where they left off last week with decent gains, albeit in low volume. The Nasdaq led the way higher once again, as it may become apparent that its April Fools joke of underperformance came about 3 weeks late. It is now more than 150 handles off its intraday low made last Wednesday after a sweet bounce off its 200 day SMA. The S&P 500 made it 5 winning days in a row as well, and this wide range roughly between 1800-1900 should resolve itself this week, with a bevy of earnings to be reported. Know your positions and when they report. If this Nasdaq can keep moving higher, along with the energy sector recent fortunes (energy sectors have been receiving an abundant amount of chatter in the media wires these days, a cause for some concern perhaps), this broad based rally can continue. Bullish investment advisers remain neutral, a plus, as they remain at the 50% level. Bearish advisers at 20% are well off highs needed for extreme pessimism, but the trend on that chart is looking upward and a move toward the 30s would be welcomed by the bulls. Looking at specific countries markets starting the week, all country ETFs outdoing the S&P 500’s .9% advance are Australia up 8.5%, then return of some BRIC’s with India at 7.7% and Brazil’s 6.3% gain. Until further technical notice, remain buyers of energy and foreign names.

ewa

Stocks to be considered shorting candidates are FBHS CMA CRL. FBHS relies somewhat on a strong housing sector, and the group technically has been weak. FBHS is lower by 11% in 2014, and 15% off its most recent all time high set in mid January. The stock is just 2.5 years old after a separation from Fortune Brands. The other half BEAM was recently taken out by a Japanese firm Suntory at a nice premium. FBHS seems to have found some bids each time it tests the round 40 handle, and it has received good 200 day SMA support last September and October, and this January (the last time it reported on 1/30 if fell 5.4% but reversed off 200 day support). That support cracked on 3/24, and a break below that line without quickly recapturing it can be very bearish. Lets look to short some FBHS at its 200 day SMA at 42.10.

FBHS

Trigger FBHS 42.10.  Buy stop 43.95.

CMA is a name we profiled in Mondays 3/10 Game Plan with a buy above a 50.01 cup with handle trigger, obviously right above the round 50 handle as well. It was taken out on 3/19, and for good measure the stock rallied almost 4% the next 2 days in firm trade. That is just what you want to see from a breakout, but it fell apart very quickly from there and that type of action so quickly after a breakout is often a red flag. CMA fell 15 of the last 20 days. Looking back on that cup, the base was V shaped which are failure prone. Its last 2 earnings reports were UNCH on 4/15 with resistance at the 50 day SMA, and on 1/15 up .5% but reversing to finish at the lows for the session. Lets look to short CMA at 50 day SMA resistance at 49.05.

cma

Trigger CMA 49.05.  Buy stop 50.15.

CRL is a member of the healthcare group which has been doing just the opposite of the ascending energy group. It has slowly drifted lower with seemingly countless headwinds against it. CRL was last looked at in the Friday Game Plan on 2/21 with a good looking flat base trigger of 59.67. It was taken out on 2/27 with good volume and closing above the round 60 number for the first time in many years. CRL never went higher than 62.50, the started retreating and then undercut its 50 day SMA in heavy trade on 4/4 losing 6%. A second red flag after the weak performance following breakout on 2/27. It has been treading water beneath its 50 day SMA and lets look to short it there at 59.

crl

Trigger CRL 59.  Buy stop 60.70.

Stocks that can be bought as they retake their 50 day SMAs which then will set up future valid bases to be added to are NVO SUNE. NVO is a member of the bio/pharma group, where you would have had to be living under a rock not to know what has taken place within that group. This company from Denmark has weathered the storm much better than most as it now stands just 8% off its all time high, whereas names like BIIB CELG AMGN are more than double that figure. NVO, which we be celebrating its 33 birthday in a couple weeks did split earlier this year 5/1 on 1/9. It is up 20% YTD, but is lower 5 of the last 7 weeks, with the week ending 3/14 where it dropped 3.9% the worst. NVO is approaching its 50 day SMA to the upside and lets look to enter with a buy stop above that line at 44.75 which sets up a double bottom that can be added to through a trigger of 45.78.

nvo

Trigger NVO 44.75.  Stop 43.30.

SUNE, the former WFR, has exposure to both the semiconductor and solar energy fields. The semis as we know have been rising as of late, but the solars have not kept pace with the overall energy group as SPWR JKS TSL are all off between 25-35% from their most recent 52 week highs. SUNE remains 18% off its recent highs but its chart looks much better with tight action and on 2/19 took out a good looking 15.32 flat base pivot. SUNE has put two decent earnings release back to back following the 8/7/13 25% debacle. On 11/6/13 the stock gained 8.1% and perhaps better to take a look at the weekly for its last report as the stock not only gained 16.3% the week ending 2/21 but then jumped 11 and 15% the next 2 weeks respectively. SUNE is approaching its 50 day SMA and lets look to enter with a buy stop above at 18.30, which sets up a double bottom base that can be added to with a pivot point of 20.40.

sune

Trigger SUNE 18.30.  Stop 17.20.

EXH is a member of the energy group which seems to getting garnering a great deal of attention lately, especially the oil and gas services group with the likes of HAL BHI SLB CJES and EXH. EXH sports a very nice technical traits as it trades very tightly, consolidates, then advances. Not to mention the excellent accumulation on both the daily and weekly charts. EXH trades just 1% off multi year highs and in 2014 is up a sweet 29% YTD. EXH most recently took out a 32.65 cup base pivot point on 11/14/13 not longer after a very nice earnings report on 11/5 gaining 6.4%. It last released numbers on 2/25 and rose 4.8%. EXH is now sporting a bullish flag pattern and lets look to enter with a buy stop above at 44.80.

exh

Trigger EXH 44.80.  Stop 42.45.

Stocks that can be bought as they take out the following specific triggers in firm trade are NTI LSTR CW UGP.

Flat base trigger NTI 27.79.  Stop 26.30.

nti

Flat base trigger LSTR 62.02.  Stop 60.35.

lstr

Double bottom trigger CW 65.78.  Stop 63.10.

cw

Cup with handle trigger UGP 25.94.  Stop 24.55.

ugp

Good luck.

The author owns CBOE TMHC.

Trigger summaries:

Short at 200 day SMA FBHS 42.10.  Buy stop 43.95.

Short at 50 day SMA CMA 49.05.  Buy stop 50.15.

Short at 50 day SMA CRL 59.  Buy stop 60.70.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA NVO 44.75.  Stop 43.30.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA SUNE 18.30.  Stop 17.20.

Buy stop above flag pattern EXH 44.80.  Stop 42.45.

Flat base trigger NTI 27.79.  Stop 26.30.

Flat base trigger LSTR 62.02.  Stop 60.35.

Double bottom trigger CW 65.78.  Stop 63.10.

Cup with handle trigger UGP 25.94.  Stop 24.55.

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