Markets exhibited some tenacity Thursday, one day before closing out a week, before a long holiday weekend. Markets were down heavy before the opening, sagging on a stunning 7% decline in the Nikkei. But US benchmarks, stalwarts all year long, shook off early 1% plus losses to finish UNCH. I am maintaining my bearish stance, but as traders we must be able to adapt quickly and decisively. As much as I pay attention to the indicies, in my opinion it is more imperative to pay a real focused attention on your individual stocks. If this market decides to resume its seemingly endless advance it pays to have seen stocks that started to go green even before the benchmarks began their early comeback. Stocks that showed just that type of behavior today were SNPS, which was strong right out of the gate, even taking out a 36.10 flat base trigger intraday, but closing under it. Volume was hefty. Watch tomorrow. DNKN ended slightly in the red but found some support after hitting its prior 39.88 cup with handle trigger pivot point it took out 5/2. EXP rallied almost precisely off its former 72.41 flat base trigger it took out 5/15. Like I said earlier, I am still bearish, and the markets still have to be given the benefit of the doubt here, but the last thing you want is to let some healthy winners, recede or even evaporate at these extended levels. Be prudent. I will wait, no need to rush here, until the weekend most likely to deploy cash back to work. There will always be opportunities to take advantage of on either the long or short side. Thanks to our men and women in uniform in advance.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are TMUS TIVO BDX. TMUS, fighting the big two telecom providers VZ T, is quickly making a name for itself, and broke out from a 19.19 cup base trigger on 5/21. The chart that is, and therefore the company too. It has been on a 4 week winning streak where it has gained a solid 32%. Actually its up 8 of the 9 last weeks, and a look on the daily shows a nice long cup base that began in the first week of last October. The bottom has a nice rounding shape, and volume was calm, and trade tight during that formation. The right side is building and volume has picked up. It tested that 19119 trigger today, and with a little volatility returning would not be surprised to see if test again. VZ looks better than T, as it found 50 day SMA support, while T is swimming beneath its.

TIVO is trading right at its 12.80 double bottom trigger it took out on Tuesday. TIVO is a stock that has several things a technician like myself looks for. It has enjoyed almost precise 200 day SMA support recently, and the trade has been tightening up. Upon finding support along that 200 day SMA in the middle of April, the move higher has been accompanied by heavy volume, displaying someones appetite, including the day of the breakout. During yesterdays wild reversal the stock remained calm closing down just .11 on declining trade. It reported a good number on Monday, and there has been tight trade ever since.

BDX most recently took out a 3 week tight trigger of 97.24 on 5/3. The stock has enjoyed a nice 28% move YTD. It is hard to find a blemish on BDX’s daily or weekly chart. On the daily you will find very tight, constructive action. The weekly is showing excellent accumulation, as it almost takes on the look of a well built staircase upward, with many tight weekly closes. I know a lot has been made on JNJ and its long weekly winning streak, but this one has been overlooked, being up every week except for 2 thus far in 2013. The medical device group has acted well with stocks like SYK ZMH displaying good action. SYK recorded a bearish outside day yesterday, and looks headed for a 50 day SMA test real soon. ZMH looks better and even with this wild week could potentially set up a bullish 3 week tight pattern depending on Fridays close.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest their 50 day SMAs after recent breakouts, which is not uncommon are NVS CSX FNP NKE. NVS most recently took out a 64.17  flat base trigger on 1/4. Look for the Swiss medical company to find 50 day SMA support at 72.70.

CSX, which chart has recently undergone some very good looking changes after lagging the strongest rails (UNP NSC CNI CP KSU), last took out a cup with handle trigger on 2/13. The rails have been weak as of late and look for this one to catch a bid at its 50 day SMA at 24.60.

FNP, the former LIZ, Liz Claiborne, last took out a 13.76 cup with handle pivot point on 1/14. Volume has been very light on its way toward a 50 day SMA test at 20.75 which should be purchased if its held.

NKE, one of my favorite retailers along with M, curiously did not recover much as the benchmarks did Thursday, last took out a 3 week tight trigger of 60.35 on 4/11. It is a couple handles from its 50 day SMA at 61.15, but that in my opinion would be a gift.

Stocks that can be bought as they take out the following specific triggers in firm trade are AMAT RGC PAG USG.

3 week tight trigger AMAT 15.28.

3 week tight trigger RGC 19.10.

Cup with handle trigger PAG 32.83.

Flat base trigger USG 30.13.

Stocks to be viewed as shorting opportunities are TRV RTI MXIM. TRV, many of which consider this name to be best of breed insurer, may have underwent a trend change recently. On 4/23 the stock reported earnings and rose 2%, but reversing from an all time high reaching earlier in the session to close upon its lows for the day. The stock has never went higher than than 89.00 all time high set that day. On Tuesday the stock penetrated its 50 day SMA to the downside in very heavy trade, which finished up a 5 day losing streak. Lets be careful here since it did just this in mid November of last year, falling below the 50 day in heavy trade before recapturing it. Lets look to short this name on a move back to 50 day SMA resistance at 84.80.

RTI, among the weak metals sector, has a daily chart that shows some loose action. Volatile, weak groups tend to be the characteristic of lagging sectors. A peek on its weekly chart shows some big time distribution the weeks ending 4/12 and 4/19, where during that 2 week period the stock lost 11%. It did garner 200 day SMA support and has since risen 3 of the last 4 weeks in frail trade and is beginning to encounter 50 day SMA resistance. It is always important to locate other sluggish names in the sector, and this group has its share. Two that come to mind both in their own personal bear markets are former stalwart SCCO, trading below both its 50/200 day SMAs, and RTI biding its time below its 200 day. Lets look to short RTI on a move back to 50 day SMA resistance at 29.50.

MXIM, among the lagging semiconductor group, has been looking lost as of late. The group has been looking decent as of late. In fact going into this week the ETH SMH was trading very tightly, and on the verge of creating its own 3 week tight trigger depending on tomorrows close. The previous 2 weekly closes were within one penny of each other. Very tight. For MXIM, its troubles began to appear even before its 7% plunge below its 50 day SMA after reporting earnings 4/26. Trade ballooned that day. It enjoyed 50 day support most of this year until the beginning of April when 50 day support became shaky. Since the earnings related move below it has not been able to get back above, and before today was down 6 of the last 7 sessions. Many in elevated trade. Lets look to short this one on a move back to 50 day SMA resistance at 31.40, or with a sell stop 0f 29.15 if 200 day support gives way.

Trigger summaries:

Buy at former trigger retest TMUS 19.19.  Stop following posted entry 18.45.

Buy at former trigger retest TIVO 12.80.  Stop following posted entry 12.40.

Buy at former trigger retest BDX 97.24.  Stop following posted entry 94.70.

Buy at 50 day SMA NVS 72.70.  Stop following posted entry 71.65.

Buy at 50 day SMA CSX 24.60.  Stop following posted entry 24.15.

Buy at 50 day SMA FNP 20.75.  Stop following posted entry 20.20.

Buy at 50 day SMA NKE 61.15.  Stop following posted entry 59.65.

3 week tight trigger AMAT 15.28.  Stop following posted entry 14.65.

3 week tight trigger RGC 19.10.  Stop following posted entry 18.65.

Cup with handle trigger PAG 32.83.  Stop following posted entry 31.55.

Flat base trigger USG 30.13.  Stop following posted entry 29.55.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance TRV 84.80.  Buy stop following posted entry 86.15.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance RTI 29.50.  Buy stop following posted entry 30.30.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance MXIM 31.40.  Buy stop following posted entry 32.35.

Good luck.

The author is flat.

Markets recorded a wild reversal Wednesday, with both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recording bearish outside days in the process. This last happened for both the aforementioned benchmarks on 2/25 this year. They went no lower from there, unbelievably, most likely in part that they were greeted with almost precise 50 day SMA support. This time they are well extended from those lines. One of the reasons I decided to enter 100% cash yesterday at the close. There were a multitude of reasons why I was seeing some potential pitfalls, and among them were the extended nature of these indicies from their 50 day SMAs. Tuesdays close for instance, the Nasdaq was about 200 handles from its 50 day. It also was having issues which is not uncommon at all of indexes pausing at big round numbers. That was 3500 on the Nasdaq. Now I am not calling for Armageddon but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 could retest their 50 day SMAs and still be considered in an uptrend.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are DOW HTH EOG. DOW most recently took out a 33.91 double bottom pivot point on 4/25. That breakout occurred on the day the stock reported earnings, and that week capped a solid 10% gain. It also kicked off a 4 week winning streak. The chemical group is starting to percolate, pun intended, and perhaps this is the beginning of a nice run for the group. YTD the stock is up 8%, indicating there could still be some gas in the tank for this one to move. Keep an eye on POL and that 25.73 flat base trigger it is hovering about. Others like HUN are getting ready for 50 day SMA tests after recent breakouts.

HTH most recently took out a 14.59 flat base on 5/9. The stocks base commenced in late November of last year, and the stock enjoyed both 50/200 day SMA support along the way. The base was tight just what you want to see, until a 10 day surge starting in the beginning of this month vaulted the stock higher. In that 2 week span HTH rose 24% on gigantic volume. Currently the stock is on 4 day losing streak, and volume today was significant. So lets be careful here, as a light volume retreat is preferable. But the breakout was substantial so that must taken into account.

EOG among the best of breed energy names most recently took out double bottom trigger of 130.15 on 5/7. EOG is lagging the markets this year with a 9% YTD gain. The breakout occurred the day the stock released its earnings on heavy trade. The energy group is one which we have spoke of that really needs to start to gain some traction. When a group lags, the way energy has, and remains that way for an extended period it is worrisome. But the group does have some strong performers. PXD is one of my favorites well above a 133.78 flat base pivot point it took out 5/7. Then you have a name like COG which took out a 71.49 flat base trigger on Monday is not acting to inspiring at all.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest their 50 day SMAs after recent breakout triggers are GNW KKR BLMN. GNW is up a healthy 40% YTD, and recently took out a 10.84 flat base trigger on 5/7. Look for a successful bounce off the 50 day SMA at 10.10.

KKR, a global asset manager of sorts, most recently took out long year long cup base with a pivot point of 19.26 on 3/13. Longer base breakouts tend to be more prone for success. Lets look for a strong bid on a retest of its 50 day SMA at 19.80.

BLMN, owners of Outback Steakhouse, and Carrabbas restaurants, last took out a 19.09 flat base trigger on 4/10. The restaurant group has been acting very nicely with stocks like PNRA TXRH CBRL BWLD all near all time highs. Lets look for a successful test of its 50 day SMA at 20.

Stocks to be bought as they take out the following specific triggers on firm trade are ARG TKR JNY MFC.

Flat base trigger ARG 103.93.

Flat base trigger TKR 58.60.

Flat base trigger JNY 15.17.

Flat base trigger MFC 15.80.

Stocks to be viewed as shorting opportunities are UAL MDAS CBD. UAL is among the former high flying airline sector, and is still well ahead of a 26.94 flat base trigger it took out on 2/27 with volume confirmation coming the following day. The stock gained some ground the next couple weeks, until a bearish week ended 4/5 where the stock gave back 8.5% in the largest weekly volume going back to last August. It did find 50 day SMA support, and bounced but the move came in weak trade. Given the status of recent leader ALK which is done double digits percentage wise this week already piercing its 50 day SMA in the process. UAL is moving toward its 50 day SMA, and is lower this week by a good margin as well. Lets look to short UAL on a move below its 50 day SMA at 31.55.

MDAS had been on my radar for a possible long above a 20.09 flat base trigger. That all ended today with a pierce below 200 day SMA support in big trade. The stock is now on a 6 day losing streak, and is under its 200 day SMA for the first time in almost a year, suggesting a real trend change can be underway. The software group has lagged this year, and it is among the lagging sectors that you will find your best shorts. Remember the strong normally get stronger and vica versa. Lets look to short MDAS on a dead cat bounce back to 200 day SMA resistance at 17.80.

CBD is a Brazilian retail conglomerate, and we know Brazil has been weak, posting a negative return YTD based on the EWZ. The stock is still nicely in front of its most recent breakout from a 49.16 flat base pivot point on 2/19. It has also garnered good 50 day SMA support since then too. The stock is trading near all time highs, but the daily charts sports almost zero accumulation. The weekly chart shows quite a few recent weeks closing within the bottom of their ranges, a bearish trait. It is also readying itself for a 50 day SMA test, and lets look to short this one with a sell stop as this one breaks below that line at 54.40.

Trigger summaries:

Buy at former trigger retest DOW 33.91.  Stop following posted entry 33.20.

Buy at former trigger retest HTH 14.59.  Stop following posted entry 13.80.

Buy at former trigger retest EOG 130.15.  Stop following posted entry 124.60.

Buy at 50 day SMA GNW 10.10.  Stop following posted entry 9.70.

Buy at 50 day SMA KKR 19.80.  Stop following posted entry 19.35.

Buy at 50 day SMA BLMN 20.  Stop following posted entry

Flat base trigger ARG 103.93.  Stop following posted entry 101.85.

Flat base trigger TKR 58.60.  Stop following posted entry 57.35.

Flat base trigger JNY 15.17.  Stop following posted entry 14.60.

Flat base trigger MFC 15.80.  Stop following posted entry 15.35.

Sell stop to short below 50 day SMA UAL 31.55.  Buy stop following posted entry 32.20.

Short at 200 day SMA resistance MDAS 17.80.  Buy stop following posted entry 18.45.

Sell stop to short below 50 day SMA CBD 54.40.  Buy stop following posted entry 55.70.

Good luck.

The author is in cash.

For you tennis geeks out there (myself included) a phrase that comes to mind, came back in 1979 when Long Island star  said “nobody beats Vitas Gerulaitis 17 times in a row”. Perhaps it would have more fitting last week as this Tuesday made it 19 consecutive UP Tuesdays. Needless to say if Vitas played the Dow on a Tuesday I think he would have been soundly defeated. Benchmarks were lower briefly in the morning, and went green, but chopped gains in half by the close. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed higher by .2%. I witnessed a couple of things that prompted me to raise cash today, mostly the action of some leading stocks, and breakouts. URBN for one has been having issues with its 44.25 flat base trigger, and today was no different even after a nice earnings beat. It was down almost 3% in heavy trade today. Leading builder LEN has been doing the same, as it is now down 3% this week already, after flirting with its 44.00 flat base trigger it reversed from Monday. One of my favorite banks FRC, which had been trading nice and tight has suddenly turned wide and loose, a bearish sign. It lost more than 2% today, but did find precise 50 day SMA support. The one chart that causes me concern the most is the bullish advisers which is now in the mid 60% range. Pollyannaish?

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are BERY A AOS. BERY last took out a 20.31 flat base trigger on 5/10 in bulging trade. It came public in October of last year. This stock could have a pulse on economic activity with its packaging component. A look on its weekly demonstrates a real solid chart. The only blemish was the week ending 4/19 when the stock declined by 5.5%, in enormous trade. However the stock did manage to finish well off the lows of the weekly range. Following that week the stock ran up a 4 week winning streak gaining 20% in the process. Others in the group doing well are PKG trading at all time highs and above latest 3 week tight trigger of 43.96 it took out on 3/26.

A took out a 45.76 cup base trigger Monday on firm trade. It had tried a few days earlier to do so after an earnings call on 5/15, taking the pivot out intraday, but closing just below it. The stock is actually just lagging the benchmarks with a year to date gain around 14% thus far. The stock has made its YTD gains all in the last 4 weeks after finding decent 200 day support. Another positive is today will be the 4th day of the bullish earnings gap on 5/15. A case can be made for 45 being the line in the sand. Group mate TEL is trading at all time highs, and above its most recent 4 week tight trigger of 42.70 it took out on 4/25.

AOS most recently took out a 37.56 flat base trigger on 4/25. It certainly is assisted by the home building recovery. It is trading just off all time highs. The stock is up 26% YTD, and I must admire I really admire the tightness of the chart action here. The stocks weekly chart, which both daily and weekly charts should be examined before any purchase, has one stain the week ending 4/5 when it declined 6%, losing its 50 day SMA in the process. However it recaptured its 50 day SMA, upon reporting earnings on 4/23 advancing 6% that day in two times average daily trade. That is why I try and have a section of purchasing with buy stops above the 50 day SMA, and then subsequent base formations.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest their 50 day SMAs, after recent breakouts where institutions like to defend their positions are MSG BRFS SCG. MSG, perhaps suffering from an “emotional” letdown following Knick, and possibly Ranger playoff exits most recently took out a 57.23 5 week tight trigger on 3/28. Look for a successful retest of the 50 day SMA over the next couple sessions at 58.

BRFS, a Brazilian food stock, most recently took out a 22.91 flat base trigger on 3/8. Would like to see some more volume on the weekly here, but will a test of its 50 day SMA at 23.30 be appetizing, pun intended? The stock could also form a 3 week tight trigger depending if Fridays close is between 24.30 and 24.60.

SCG is one of the better looking utility stocks. It most recently took out a 49.74 flat base trigger on 3/26. The XLU has been losing some of its mojo, but it is managing to hold its 50 day SMA. Look for a bounce off 50 day SMA support on SCG at 52.

RHP can be bought initially as it recaptures its 50 day SMA at 44.35, which would further set up a flat base pivot point of 48.45.

Stocks that can be bought as they take out the following specific triggers in firm trade are KORS GNC RGC LPS.

Cup with handle trigger KORS 62.45.

3 week tight trigger GNC 46.60.

3 week tight trigger RGC 19.10.

Cup shaped base trigger LPS 30.98.

Stocks to be looked at as shorting opportunities are CG ELLI WYN. CG is floundering in a decent asset management space. The stock kicked off 2013 with a bang of a breakout, taking out a 28.00 flat base trigger on 1/18. from a 5 month long base. Tight action in the base was favorable. The stock ran up from there a nice 30% before reversing from an intraday high of 37.89 2/20. The stock fell 7 of 13 weeks, most in heavy trade and finishing the weekly range near the low, a bearish sign. The stock is now in a bear market down 20% from recent 52 week highs. It is hovering just below its 50 day SMA at 31.20, and lets short it there. Lets keep a tight leash on this one as always, because a move above the 50 day could potentially create a double bottom with a 33.57 trigger.

ELLI is a software name that went public in April of 2011, and as most IPOs can be forgiven for sloppy trade, this one has been around a little to long for that excuse. The stock is from the lagging software group which is another negative, but their are some good performers in the sector like GWRE ADVS. This one is down YTD almost 20%, on a robust tape. It is also down near 27% off recent 52 week highs. Its RS is at a new low, its down 7 consecutive sessions. It is below both its 50/200 day SMAs, and the 200 day is beginning to point lower. Wow, not sure I ripped a stock harder in my 3 years of daily blogging. Probably so negative makes it a buy! But in all seriousness let short this name on a bounce to its 50 day SMA at 23.50.

WYN has the look of wanting to really cement itself as the lodging laggard. Say that 10 times fast. The stock is also just barely lagging the major benchmarks up 14% YTD. However its daily chart is showing heavy distribution recently. The stock is well ahead still of its 53.71 cup with handle pivot point it took out on the first trading day of the year. But notice the majority of the base was formed beneath its 50 day SMA, a red flag. The stocks weekly is is tough shape as well as the stock has been lower 4 of the last 7 weeks, all of them closing upon the weekly ranges. As WYNN HOT LVS trade right near 52 week highs this one is near 7% off its. Lets look to short WYN at 50 day SMA at 62.80.

Trigger summaries:

Buy at former trigger retest BERY 20.31.  Stop following posted entry 19.60.

Buy at former trigger retest A 45.26.  Stop following posted entry 44.65.

Buy at former trigger retest AOS 37.56.  Stop following posted entry 36.45.

Buy at 50 day SMA MSG 58.  Stop following posted entry 56.85.

Buy at 50 day SMA BRFS 23.30.  Stop following posted entry 22.55.

Buy at 50 day SMA SCG 52.  Stop following posted entry 51.30.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA RHP 44.35.  Stop following posted entry 43.65.

Cup with handle trigger KORS 62.45.  Stop following posted entry 61.15.

3 week tight trigger GNC 46.60.  Stop following posted entry 45.45.

3 week tight trigger RGC 19.10.  Stop following posted entry 18.45.

Cup base trigger LPS 30.98.  Stop following posted entry 30.30.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance CG 31.20.  Buy stop following posted entry 31.30.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance ELLI 23.50.  Buy stop following posted entry 24.65.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance WYN 62.80.  Buy stop following posted entry 64.10.

Good luck.

The author is in cash.

We sold SWN today at 39.66, that we bought at 37.24 on 5/6. It could not hold above the add on flat base trigger of 39.81. Sold for a 6.5% profit.

We sold MYL today at 31.20, that we bought at 29.44 on 5/6. It is having issues near its add on buy point of 31.32. Sold for a 6% profit.

We sold TTM at the open today at 26.74, that we bought on 4/22 at 26.56. Call it breakeven. Relative weakness in the group, and opportunity cost.

We played JBHT today as it attempted to take out a 75.83 flat base trigger. Volume was meager today, and may be bought tomorrow but we broke even on the trade.

 

Markets began the week in a listless like fashion finishing with fractional losses. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell less 1/10th of 1%, gearing up for a 19th consecutive up Tuesday? Most of the days brightest stars came from the energy sector, one group in dire need of some rotation. You will always have your leaders in a weak overall group, and it is imperative to keep an eye on them. They could be among the strongest movers once the rotation is in full effect. One that comes to mind is COG and its breakout from a 71.49 flat base trigger. RRC shrugged off a Monday morning blue downgrade and finished a percentage point higher, and nudging right under 50 day SMA resistance. One potential canary in the coal mine is the continued softness in Mexico. If the US economy is supposedly turning on all cylinders, why the fragility?

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are TGT UBS PNC. TGT most recently took out a 69.44 3 week tight trigger on 4/25, with volume confirmation not coming until 5/15. It was not surprising to see the stock sell off slightly following the original move, but it did find ample 50 day SMA support. It is currently up 19% YTD, and trading at all time highs. Retail will be in focus this week with stock like WSM GPS LOW LTD GME reporting earnings. Among the big box retailers COST is separating itself from WMT (which disappointed last week). COST is above a 107.85 3 week tight trigger it took out on 4/24. KSS beat last week, but its chart is a sloppy mess.

UBS most recently took out a 17.76 flat base trigger on 4/30. The stock gapped up last Halloween and since then 15 handle has provided a nice floor. The stock actually broke out of its most recent base following a bullish earnings release. The stock has been on a 4 week winning streak gaining 16% in the process. On the daily, the gap up has been holding up very well, and the tightness of trade must be respected. The banking group has been acting very well with the XLF up 22% YTD. WFC is acting nicely above its most recent 38.30 flat base pivot point it took out on 5/7. MTU, those looking for Japanese exposure, is liquid but low priced, but a case can be made for a purchase near its 50 day SMA at 6.50.

PNC most recently took out a 69.75 3 week tight trigger on 5/14. The stocks weekly chart is the epitome of tightness, which we know as very bullish. The stock is up 22% YTD, and last week was up up 4% doubling the benchmarks weekly advance. The stock retook its 200 day SMA 1/17, and found good footing their again in late February, and has since found comfortable 50 day SMA as well. We mentioned above the fondness for finnies in general this year, but the regionals have been strong too. FITB is trading above its most recent breakout from a 16.87 pivot point in a flat base on 4/30.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest their 50 day SMAs after recent breakouts are STRZA JACK. STRZA from the top performing media group last took out a 13.39 flat base trigger back on 1/2. Lets look to enter off of a successful retest of its 50 day SMA at 22.10.

JACK from the solid casual dining group which has been appetizing this year, pun intended, last took out a 35.22 3 week tight trigger on 4/11. The group may be started to show signs of indigestion as I noticed some of the laggards in the group prospering. Names like DENN just above a 5.96 flat base trigger come to mind. Even WEN looks good. JACK can be bought as it tests and holds 50 day SMA support at 35.40.

TRN can be bought initially with a buy stop above its 50 day SMA 42.55, and then added to through a flat base trigger 45.77. Keep in mind the transports have been excelling for sometime. WAB has a chart of beauty.

Stocks that can be bought as they take out the following specific triggers on firm trade are EL PII BKD TUMI.

3 week tight trigger EL 72.18.

Double bottom trigger PII 93.38.

Flat base trigger BKD 30.02.

Cup with handle trigger TUMI 25.68.

Stocks to be viewed as shorting opportunities are HLSS AMX SKYW. HLSS was on my radar for a purchase through a 24.19 flat base trigger on Thursday. Another good example of why we demand a break and CLOSE above the pivot point. This one reversed somewhat to close 2% off its intraday high. Volume was not at the 40% greater than average daily volume threshold either. To add to the shame, Friday, on a benign tape the stock lost more than 2%. Stocks in the group are also outperforming HLSS, like NSM which broke above a 42.34 flat base trigger on 5/9 and held above it and consolidating. Just what you want to see from a breakout. Lets look to short HLSS with a sell stop as it loses 50 day SMA support at 23.

AMX, with exposure to the declining Mexcian region, is clinging onto 50 day SMA support. The Mexican ETF EWW is nearing correction territory, but a 200 day SMA test is near. AMX itself is down more than 10% YTD, a very dire showing thus far. Weak tend to get weaker. It is certainly not keeping pace with the international telecom equities. We have highlighted SKM, but another sound looking stock in the group is BT. Illiquid, but holding its 5/10 12% earnings related gap up. A look on the weekly shows two consecutive down weeks, and some real distribution. The weeks ending 2/15 and 3/15 saw weekly losses of 11 and 13%. Lets look to short this one with a sell stop as it loses 50 day SMA at 20.30.

SKYW, a laggard in the airline group, which has been performing well on the backs of the transports. The stock is down 5 of the last 7 weeks, in a year which that is almost impossible to do, with the steely will of the indexes. The daily chart is littered with distribution as well, and the stock has been living under the 50 day SMA since falling below it on 4/3 losing 5% in the process. And that was coming a day AFTER a 8% plus move downard, both days coming in elevated trade. When a stock falls below its 50 day SMA its not the end of the world. Many go on to reclaim, but they need to do so in a prompt fashion, and the original pierce below it should be in light trade. Lets look to short SKYW on a move back to 50 day SMA resistance at 14.80.  Disconcerting to see leader ALK missing the tarmac, down over 5% today.

Trigger summaries:

Buy at former trigger retest TGT 69.44.  Stop following posted entry 68.55.

Buy at former trigger retest UBS 17.76.  Stop following posted entry 17.35.

Buy at former trigger retest PNC 69.75.  Stop following posted entry 68.55.

Buy at 50 day SMA STRZA 22.10.  Stop following posted entry 21.30.

Buy at 50 day SMA JACK 35.40.  Stop following posted entry 34.70.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA TRN 42.55.  Stop following posted entry 41.45.

3 week tight trigger EL 72.18.  Stop following posted entry 70.70.

Double bottom trigger PII 93.38.  Stop following posted entry 91.55.

Flat base trigger BKD 30.02.  Stop following posted entry 29.40.

Cup with handle trigger TUMI 25.68.  Stop following posted entry 24.80.

Sell stop to short below 50 day SMA HLSS 23.  Buy stop following posted entry 24.10.

Sell stop to short below 50 day SMA AMX 20.30.  Buy stop following posted entry 21.10.

Short at 50 day SMA resistance SKYW 14.80.  Buy stop following posted entry 15.40.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM MYL SWN.

Markets ended Friday on a 4 week winning streak with solid weekly gains from both the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The S&P 500 outdid the Nasdaq this week by a slim margin, gaining 2% compared to the Nasdaqs 1.8%. The S&P 500 is also ahead on a YTD basis by exactly one percentage point up a very strong 16.9%. There were a plethora of breakouts this week, and Friday was no different with names like CS CPRT BRCM all taking out pivot points. The healthy rotations among sectors continues with essential groups like autos, transports, finance part of the strongest industries. This week chemicals joined the fray with names like CHMT EMN both gaining more than 10% this week. Defense names specifically Friday had solid days with LMT RTN both higher by 2% of strong trade. There are still plenty of sectors waiting the join the party like semis, retail and energy. Perhaps that will be the fuel the bears will have to disperse over the coming weeks.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are BECN CLR TSO. BECN last took out a 39.91 flat base trigger on 5/14. It had attempted to take out that trigger previously after a solid earnings release 5/10 where it rose more than 4% on two times average daily trade. Remember demand a CLOSE above that breakout trigger to stay long. This one has been a beneficiary of the housing related complex with stock in the sector such ad HD LL. LL is well past its former 3 week tight trigger breakout of 68.38 on 3/25. BECN is trading right at all time highs and a peek at its weekly shows good accumulation with 4 consecutive up weeks, and the last 3 with strong volume. Notice how the last 5 weeks the stock bullishly closed at its highs for the weekly range as well.

CLR took out a double bottom with handle trigger Friday of 85.91. This domestic energy play is being assisted by the oil and shale revolution underway stateside. The XLE recently reached 5 year highs, and the sector is looking brighter all the time. The stock is on a 4 week winning streak mirroring the benchmarks, where it has advanced more than 17% in the process recapturing both its 50/200 day SMAs. Volume was firm during the streak as well. It is up just 15% YTD , suggesting more room to run ahead. Stocks in the group looking solid are RRC BCEI COG. RRC is readying itself for a 50 day SMA test to the upside and can be bought with a buy stop of 77.75.

TSO, sticking with the energy theme took out a 60.00 flat base trigger on Friday as well. The move was accompanied by gigantic volume indicating an insatiable appetite for the stock, and just what you want to see in a breakout. It rose 15% for the week, and is up a strong 41% YTD thus far, and is just below all time highs made in June of 2007. The name has to be looked upon as best in breed in the refiner space, as many have been trying to recover from recent regulation handed down. Many like WNR are resting just below their 50 day SMAs, VLO reclaimed its 50 day SMA Wednesday, and one I will try and take advantage of is PSX, which also retook its 50 day SMA this week. A move to its 50 day SMA at 64 on PSX is buyable.

Stocks that can be bought as they take out their 50 day SMAs with buy stops, then added to through future valid base triggers are DGI TCB PRIM. DGI which we have played recently is pushing right up against 50 day SMA resistance here. Look to enter with a buy stop of 28.65 as it recoups its 50 day SMA, which then sets up a flat base with a pivot point of 30.60.

TCB, a good looking finnie, is resting right up against its 50 day SMA right here. Lets look to enter with a buy stop as it sheds itself from 50 day support at 14.75, which further sets up a flat base with a pivot point of 15.41.

PRIM, among the building group, can be bought initially with a buy stop above its 50 day SMA at 21.80, which further sets up a flat base with a pivot point of 23.28. Keep an eye on ACM in the group as it recently recaptured its 50 day SMA and currently sports a 33.19 flat base trigger.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest their 50 day SMAs following recent breakouts are GPOR ETE keeping with the energy theme. GPOR most recently took out a 3 week tight trigger of 49.84 on 4/25. It has given back almost 10% the last couple weeks so lets be tight with our stop here. Look for a successful bounce off the 50 day SMA at 47.40 to enter.

ETE most recently took out a 4 week tight trigger 0f 60.34 on 5/9. The stock has traded in a tight range since the beginning of April with the exception of its breakout day. Look to open a position on a bounce off 50 day SMA support at 57.85.

Stocks that can be bought as they take out the following specific triggers on firm trade are BWC OAS TXN STLD.

Flat base BWC 30.07.

Cup base trigger OAS 39.88.

3 week tight trigger TXN 37.45

Cup with handle trigger STLD 15.80.

Stocks to be viewed as shorting opportunities are UNM MPEL. UNM has taken out 2 triggers recently. The first one being a 24.10 long cup shaped base that began in May of 2012, and taken out on 2/12. It then took out a 28.45 flat base trigger on 5/14. Problem is both were taken out in paltry trade. The stock is currently trading at 10 year highs but the chart has the appearance of stalling action. Its weekly chart looks fine as it has gained ground 4 weeks straight, but the daily is starting to show some distribution. Thursdays action was concerning for a heavy volume decline came just 2 days after the breakout. It has tested its 50 day SMA 4 times since the beginning of April, and will look to short it below that line with a sell stop of 27.25.

MPEL has the look on both its daily and weekly chart of distribution. This stock has also found support at its 50 day SMA 4 times since the middle of April, and we know the more times a MA is tested the more likely it is to break. Peeking at its weekly chart since the beginning of February shows 4 heavy volume weekly declines compared with 1 advance. The stock is still ahead of a decent looking cup with handle breakout on 3/20 where it gained 7%. The stock just missed being doing everyday this week, when the indexes were strong, with a small advance on Friday. Lets look to short this one on a break below its 50 day SMA at 22.90.

VIP, has now lost ground 3 of the last 4 weeks, almost the exact opposite of the US indicies. It certainly has not kept pace with the strong international telecom plays, and that type of bifurcation is not healthy. Its main Russian competitor MBT is not looking that great either as it encounters 50 day SMA resistance, and has been trading wide and loose which we know as failure prone. VIP had been on my radar as a possible long above an 11.92 flat base trigger, but as traders we must be nimble and ready to change our minds quickly. VIP’s weekly chart shows the stock down 4 of the last 7 weeks all concluding at the bottom of their weekly ranges, 3 in heavy volume. Lets look to short VIP on a move back to 50 day SMA resistance at 11.05.

Trigger summaries:

Buy at former trigger retest BECN 39.91.  Stop following posted entry 39.40.

Buy at former trigger retest CLR 85.91.  Stop following posted entry 84.70.

Buy at former trigger retest TSO 60.00.  Stop following posted entry 58.55.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA DGI 28.65.  Stop following posted entry 28.10.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA TCB 14.75.  Stop following posted entry 14.40.

Buy stop above 50 day SMA PRIM 21.80.  Stop following posted entry 21.25.

Buy at 50 day SMA GPOR 47.40.  Stop following posted entry 46.55.

Buy at 50 day SMA ETE 57.85.  Stop following posted entry 57.25.

Flat base trigger BWC 30.07.  Stop following posted entry 29.15.

Cup base trigger OAS 39.88.  Stop following posted entry 38.85.

3 week tight trigger TXN 37.45.  Stop following posted entry 36.40.

Cup with handle trigger STLD 15.80.  Stop following posted entry 15.35.

Sell stop to short below 50 day SMA UNM 27.25.  Buy stop following posted entry 27.80.

Sell stop to short below 50 day SMA MPEL 22.90.  Buy stop following posted entry 23.85.

Short at 50 day SMA VIP 11.05.  Buy stop following posted entry 11.45.

Good luck.

The author owns TTM MYL SWN.

TTM finished the week UNCH, under performing the benchmarks, and somewhat disappointing. It did close at its highs for the weekly range however. Volume has been quiet for the last 4 weeks and a push above stubborn resistance at 28, could get this one to punch through its double bottom trigger of 28.74 that I will add to our existing position that we purchased on 4/22 at 26.56 as it retook its 50 day SMA. We are currently up 4.5% in our stock, and our stop will remain 26.65.

MYL had a nice week up almost 6%, and closing just above a 31.32 flat base trigger. I was reluctant to add to the position for the absence of volume. Will add if the stock can show me some volume confirmation this week. We are up a devilish 6.66% from our 29.43 entry on 5/6 as it retook its 50 day SMA, and we well move our stop up to 30.25 to ensure a profit.

SWN was up 5.6% on the week as energy is starting to catch some bids. It reclaimed its 50 day SMA Tuesday, and its 36.79 flat base pivot point it originally took out on 3/7. That 50 day SMA was nagging resistance most of last week. A new flat base was completed this week, with a potential trigger of 39.81 which I will add to if taken out on firm volume. We are up 4.2% from our 5/6 purchase at 37.24, and lets move our stop up to 36.35.