THE WEEK AHEAD: Starting 2/20/24
"It usually takes more than 3 weeks to prepare a good impromptu speech." Mark Twain Nasdaq Brick Wall? In our last WEEK AHEAD Note we opened with the quote "Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." To be frank many market participants were very hyper-bullish given the big tech move in November-December last year, however, January failed to deliver on the "Santa Claus rally" and the January barometer as well with the Nasdaq up 1% (much different to January 2023 that jumped almost 10%). It feels like the benchmark is at a stalemate here as sentiment has become negative. With seasonality bearish and the Nasdaq coming into contact with the round 16000 figure (on 2/9-12 both CLOSED below though), last touched with the MONTHLY bearish gravestone candle in late 2021 is a double top on hand? The vast majority of smart investors I communicate with are bearish now, myself included, and the daily chart seems to confirm this belief. We are seeing negative RSI divergence, with PRICE beginning to confirm, with dubious candlesticks too with a shooting star and engulfing candle on Monday and Friday. I think one should be positioned with plenty of cash, but be open to the idea of another leg higher. One can always get back in with a firm break above 16000. Patience here, with no need to be a hero.