Chartsmarter Insights

18 Mar 2024

Technology Sector Review: 3/19/24

By |2024-03-18T16:21:19-04:00Monday|

Apple Crisp? Could the world's second-largest company on the planet in Apple be ruffled enough to make a stand and try to reclaim the top spot? Monday was a good start for the name, but it CLOSED well off intraday highs, recording a mild bullish island reversal (gap up following a recent gap down). The stock added a pedestrian .6% although it encountering resistance at the 21-day EMA, and look for a possible move toward the round 180 number which was the site of a bearish descending triangle or head and shoulders pattern. April is around the corner and seasonality-wise, starts a strong run into summer last normally lasts until September, which curiously has a very bad track record over the last 5 years falling almost 10%. On its WEEKLY chart, last week did register a bullish harami, and I think these levels offer good risk/reward going into year-end with a stop below last week's lows. Another caveat is the MONTHLY chart which has sported three consecutive spinning top candles and is now back below the 180.42 cup base breakout from last June. The 180 level is important and must see a CLOSE above on March 29th, the last day of the month.

16 Mar 2024

THE WEEK AHEAD: Starting 3/18/24

By |2024-03-17T06:22:51-04:00Saturday|

"He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight" - Sun Tzu Dodgy Dow? As the hype with technology reigns, more specifically the semiconductors meteoric rise, the Dow that was gaining some of the spotlight in the latter part of 2023 has subsided. And its chart is displaying that melancholy. Perhaps one would say the Dow is meaningless but on this chart, one can see it has had the propensity to lead in years past as seen here. Truth be told since the start of the year the Dow has been lagging and could this be a canary in the coal mine if it breaks below this recent digestion and its 50-day SMA? On a YTD basis, the Dow has advanced by 3%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have risen by 6 and 7% respectively. This is a PRICE-weighted index (and the higher-priced names are more influential) so particular attention should be paid to UNH, which is below its 200-day SMA and 12% off its most recent 52-week highs. MSFT, the second largest component which we spoke about in our Friday Tech Note is the one to watch as it may have recorded a failed breakout Friday. It registered a spinning top candle the day after a CLOSE above a cup base pivot of 420.14, but give it the benefit of the doubt and remain bullish as triple witching may have skewed the technical picture Friday. One can see that UNH has done the damage and the Dow has held up but if Microsoft buckles that could be a shot across the bow.

15 Mar 2024

Consumer Sector Review: 3/18/24

By |2024-03-15T16:36:28-04:00Friday|

Amazon Vulnerable? Within the XLY there are two dominant forces in AMZN and TSLA. We know the latter has been lagging and AMZN is doing its best to keep the ETF afloat, but what if that pressure is weighing on the psyche of the stock? The daily chart below of the XLY shows it clinging on to its 50-day SMA, but the failure of the cup base breakout, lasting just 5 sessions, is notable. On a YTD basis, it is just one of only two major S&P sectors in the red down .4%, and TSLA has been one of the culprits (this is nothing new and notice here how the WEEKLY chart shows how soft it has been since hitting a wall at the very round 300 number last summer and it could be headed to par with all the big WEEKLY losses CLOSING near lows). The WEEKLY chart of AMZN shows back-to-back spinning top candles and the possibility of a bearish MACD crossover which occurred last September and witnessed a quick 20% haircut. Rounding out the top 4 components it should be no surprise there is bifurcation there, with HD bull flagging, and MCD clinging to its 200-day SMA.

14 Mar 2024

Technology Sector Review: 3/15/24

By |2024-03-14T16:45:31-04:00Thursday|

Microsoft The Bellwether?   As MSFT comfortably pulls away from taking over the world's largest market cap play from AAPL, one should look for clues from this lone $3T behemoth. It is now the largest holding in the XLK, but itself and Apple still account for more than 40% of the fund. AAPL is not looking like it wants to follow through higher out of the bullish morning star pattern we spoke about last week. Last Friday's session was certainly suspect as the candle intraday looked strong but CLOSED meagerly and recorded a bullish inverted hammer. Three of the four days this week have filled in the upside gap from 3/4 and backed off. As AAPL now trades 13% off its most recent 52-week highs, MSFT has stayed in close proximity to all-time highs. Since breaking above the very round 400 number on 1/24 it has CLOSED above it except for 1/31. Today could be important as it broke above a cup base pivot of 420.14 and finished just off intraday highs. Remember the best breakouts tend to work right away so any stalling action here or failure to put some distance between itself and the breakout trigger would be interpreted in a bearish fashion. If this can finish Friday on a sanguine note that would have bears sleeping uneasy over the weekend.

13 Mar 2024

Healthcare Sector Review: 3/14/24

By |2024-03-13T16:20:12-04:00Wednesday|

Biotech Stamina?   The biotech space via the XLI is now 6% off the most recent 52-week highs after a quick spurt above the very round par number. Often that is where selling pressure will abate after an instrument has hit an annual peak. The daily chart below shows the fund is still above the recent cup base breakout and the 50-day SMA is catching up in PRICE. Another look here is how the 21-day EMA may be support here as it was between mid-January and early February, and notice how the Bollinger Bands are starting to contract (see how PRICE witnessed a robust move after the tautened in early February. To balance out the healthy sentiment the WEEKLY chart here shows the rejection at the 50 WEEK SMA and the bearish dark cloud cover candle last week which both took place in the area of the 100 area, where things will often at the very least take a pause. One positive that can be taken away from the WEEKLY timeframe however is the bounce off this mid-90s area, which was resistance in both early and mid-2022. I am still constructive on the XBI as long as it maintains ground above 90.