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Weekend Warrior

Markets again weakened Friday putting a week to rest where both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both lost 2.3%. The S&P 500 has now lost ground for 5 consecutive weeks. That has not happened since June-July of 2008. Friday brought a dismal employment report, which put the market on the defensive big time before the open. Other developments during the week, included another warning from Moodys concerns about US Debt, weak auto sales, poor retail figures, slowing ISM data, faltering consumer confidence all of which contributed to the market fragility. Indexes tried to rally midday but it was not to be. Sellers returned in the afternoon, with markets ending right at their lows for the session. The Nasdaq took the worst of it Friday dropping almost 1.5%. AMZN COST ALTR joined the list of leaders piercing their 50 day MAs Friday. NFLX, bucked Nazz weakness and hit an all time high Friday. Even some defensive names which have outperformed recently lost their mojo. GIS MKC lost their key 50 day MAs Friday as well. Educational stocks, is one defensive group that seems to be acting well. Sectors taking the brunt of the selling Friday were transports, retail and semis. Oil stocks held up relatively well. Not much on the earnings front or economic data Monday.

Again buying leading stocks breaking out of bases is a frivolous game. Same as the pundits saying buy defensive groups. Silly? A loss of 5% in a defensive name compared with a 10% loss in a higher beta security is still a loss. Better to build cash reserves and wait for a better market complexion. Obviously never abandon a watch list of leading stocks because the market can change its colors very quickly. Some to watch which have held up decently during this malaise are EXPE, which has a 3 week tight buy point of 28.40. WYNN 151.83 in a flat base, ABV 33.34 in a cup with high handle formation and ATW 45.20 in a double bottom base.

Stocks near 50 day support are WYNN 141.45, AET 40.75, AGP 66.10, BAX 57, HLS 26, HS 41, WPI 60.75, WLP 74.50, ZMH 64.55, ANF 70, FOSL 97.50, SCSS 15, YUM 33, CBS 25.75, VIAB 49, DPS 39.50, PM 68, WCN 30.35, BMC 51.95, CHKP 53.50, CTXS 79.40, FTNT 22.05, INFA 54, NUAN 20.50, QLIK 29.50, EQT 50, HAL 48.20, KEG 16, PTEN 29.10, HK 25.10, CL 83.50, TUP 62, BLL 37.50, VCLK 16.50, EMC 27.50, TDC 53, PCS 17.15, QCOM 55.95, VECO 51, SQM 58. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were ALB PPO ITW TTWO CNI NSC UNP TEL COG CPX NFX OXY RES SWN ADP AVGP SMTX XLNX MON. Stocks that can be bought if they can reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are APC 78.25, CHK 32.25, EOG 112, NOV 74.50, SLB 87.25, WMB 31.30. UPL AEM both retook their 50 day MAs Friday.

Stocks near 2oo day support which are becoming numerous with this ailing market are PVH 62.60, APD 88, DOW 34.05, FMC 77.75, PPG 83, SOA 22, VPHM 17.10, ANN 25, DKS 35.25, JWN 42.10, WSM 36, KO 63.50, CBE 58.05, DOV 59.50, IR 44.05, JOYG 84, ROK 76, ADSK 39, ORCL 30.90, ROVI 54.50, VRSN 33.40, AVT 32.25, PKI 25.35, GTI 19.50, TKR 46.90, APA 115, CXO 88, COP 68, DVN 78.25, DO 70.20, FTI 42, HES 74, MDR 19.85, NBL 85.85, PXD 86, RDSA 67.10, MMM 89.10, UTX 79.50, CTSH 72, OPEN 80, CMCSA 22.25, ADI 36.90, MCHP 35.20, TXN 32.25, AA 15, BHP 88.45, POT 52.95, ARUN 25.65. Stocks that found 200 day support Friday were WCRX MDRX BP SU DD OMC PAYX NTAP RIO SLW ALV AGU. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs Friday were JCP EXPD FDX UPS APH ETN TIN CMI DE. ANR BTU FCX all encountered 200 day resistance Friday. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are LVS 43.15, BID 43, RHT 43.05, TROW 61, MTL 27.75, NUE 43, TCK 51.50, LRCX 48.10, SWC 20, JPM 42.50. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are EBAY 29.45, DIS 37.70, BGC 35.75, PH 83.75, TTMI 14.30, AMP 56.75, KLAC 40, SPRD 17.50, BWA 66. SUN can be bought thru 40.60, its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are DECK 90, HBI 30, UA 69.50, EMN 102, ABC 40.90, AN 34, EXPR 21.10, FAST 33, ARBA 32.75, CSX 77, COF 53, DFS 24.30, HP 64, NBR 29, WNR 17, IP 30.50. Stocks that found 50 day resistance Friday were PCLN TS HOC MRO MCP. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are CE 47.75, ROC 49.50, WYN 31.70, KSU 54.75, ADS 88.75, AXP 48.05, EL 97, TPX 59, RKT 70, IRM 32.25, AAPL 341, DTV 48, WAT 93.40. Stocks that lost their 50 day MA Friday were ACN ADI MXIM OVTI B TRW JBL MOLX R CCK MWV NKE LYB COV SYK CHRW A.

Good luck.

The author owns HK TIBX.

Thursday Recap

Markets turned in a mixed performance Thursday. Not the kind of reaction you would like to see after yesterdays rout, which was the worst since last August. Perhaps it just biding its time before tomorrow mornings big jobs report. Volume was soft, compared to the first two trading days of the week. Todays winning groups hailed from the education, machinery and ag sectors. Autos were weak, retail faltered again with stocks like COH CROX NKE PVH VFC ANN just to name a few. Even some defensive names such as KO GIS K CL lagged. Be patient here, and let the market reassert itself before making any meaningful purchases. Very few leading stocks look poised to breakout here too. No real earnings tomorrow but beware the employment report at 830am. ISM Non-Manufacturing is reported Friday at 10am.

Keep a watchlist now with stocks that are treading water and acting well during the correction. They could be the first to emerge as the next leaders when the market rally resumes. A few to keep an eye on are WYNN 151.83 buy point in a flat base. HS 45.21 in a 3 week tight pattern. WAT 100.04 in a flat base, and AET 46.11, MOLX 28.20 both cup with handles.

Stocks near 50 day support are ALB 65, CE 48, PPO 61.50, WYN 33, AGP 66, HLS 26, ZMH 64.50, SCSS 15, YUM 53, CBS 25.75, VIAB 49, PM 68, ITW 56, WCN 30.25, BMC 52, FTNT 22, NUAN 20.50, QLIK 29.50, CHRW 78, KSU 55, NSC 70.50, TEL 35.50, ADS 89, COG 54, EQT 50, HAL 48.10, KEG 16, PTEN 29.10, HK 25, SUG 28.50, TPX 60, TUP 62, MWV 32.50, ACN 56, ADP 53, EMC 27.30, TDC 53, DTV 48, PCS 17.10, ALTR 46, SMTC 26.95, XLNX 33.70, MON 68. Stocks that found 50 day support today were EMN LYB ROC COV SYK AMZN CNI A JBL BHI MRO NFX OXY SWN CCK MXIM B. TS managed to retake its 50 day today, stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are EOG 112, NOV 74.50, ARMH 29.25.

Stocks near 200 day support are HBI 26.60, APD 88, DOW 34, FMC 77.75, PPG 83, STJ 44, VPHM 17.05, WCRX 23, ANN 25, JWN 42.05, WSM 36, DIS 39, CBE 58, DOV 59.50, BGC 36, PH 84, ADSK 39, ORCL 30.75, FDX 90.55, UPS 71.30, TTMI 14.50, AMP 57, BP 43.90, CXO 87, HES 74, MDR 19.85, RDSA 67, SU 38.80, WLL 59, DD 50, MMM 89.05, TIN 21.95, CTSH 72, OMC 45.50, PAYX 30.50, NTAP 52, OPEN 80, KLAC 40.10, SPRD 17.90, BWA 66. Stocks that found 200 day support today were MDRX RHT EXPD RIO CMI DE AGU. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are LVS 43.10, MTL 27.75, MUR 68.80, SUN 40.25, RIG 71, LRCX 48, FCX 51.40, JPM 42.50. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are HOT 57.50, APH 52.10, SLW 34, ALV 72.50. ANR lost its 200 day today, and BTU SWC found 200 day resistance. TCK can be bought thru 51.80, as it reclaims its 200 day MA.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are DECK 89.80, UA 69.50, HUN 19.05, PCLN 520, CAR 18.05, RCL 39.50, EBAY 32, FAST 33, IR 49, ARW 43.60, AVT 35, DFS 24.30, VLO 27.90, DHR 53.40. Stocks that found 50 day resistance today were PVH EXPR ARBA. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are NKE 80.50, COV 54, COST 78.50, UNP 99.50, EL 97, AVGO 32.70. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were PX K PKI COF HOC IFF IBM.

Good luck.

The author owns HK TIBX.

Wednesday After Market

Markets slumped Wednesday, with indexes closing lower by more than 2%. They finished near session lows, just the opposite of yesterday, in higher than average volume. They pierced their 50 day MAs today, a day after the market gave signals that buys were again prudent. Traders however, need to be flexible and able to change their minds when the circumstances arise. Many leaders themselves, the strongest ones during this recent correction which held above their uptrends, gave up today. DHR UTX TYC all looked to have changed their complexion today for the worse. Sectors hurt the hardest today were banks, transports and commodities. Tech was not immune either. JNPR plunged 10% today, losing its 200 day MA. We first thought it was a CSCO thing, but apparently we were wrong. Some leaders tried to breakout today only to leave ugly negative reversals, such as VMW. Many former leaders also lost their 200 day MAs today. FCX IVZ TROW DE to name a few. Economic news was again weak today as it was yesterday, but the market reaction was obviously very different. ISM data was weak with the index coming close to the magic 50 number. Private job creation came in well below forecasts. Tomorrow brings jobless claims, factory orders and productivity numbers. Earnings reports come from JOYG before the bell, and PAY after the close.

Perhaps we were lucky to close out our profitable positions yesterday in FCX and BTU. But it was intuition as well. Put the buys on hold until the market can assert itself. Instead looks for key moving averages support. Stocks near 50 day support are AGP 66, TDC 53, ADP 53, DTV 48, EL 97.25, MWV 32.40, WAT 93, TRW 54.40, XLNX 33.65, EMC 27.45, MON 68, SYK 60.95, ABB 25.50, MOLX 26, TEL 35.50, HK 25, ANF 70, SMTC 26.90, ABV 30.55, PPO 61, YUM 53, WCN 30.25, TTWO 15.90, HAL 48.15, PCS 17.05. BHI COF found 50 day support today. If these levels do not hold, and they lose their 50 day MAs in big volume cut your losses quickly and even consider shorting.

Stocks near 200 day support are EBAY 29.65, ADSK 39, RDC 35.50, DKS 35.10, DIS 39, ORCL 30.80, NBL 84.75, MM 89, PAYX 30.50, TXN 32.10, FMC 77.40, VPHM 17.05, CBE 58, TTMI 14.50, APA 115, HES 74, NBR 24, RDSA 67, SLB 79.25, SU 38.55, DD 50, AA 15, BHP 88.25, RIO 67.10, DOW 34, ANN 25, JOYG 83.50 (earnings before bell Thursday), MDX 19.65, JWN 42, UPL 45.50, IP 27, TIN 21.90. MOS LVS MAR all found 200 day resistance today. Stocks that lost their 200 day MAs today were TCK WRC RHT BID MUR SUN SWC JPM. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 200 day MAs and their sell stop spots are HOT 57.50, PH 83.50, FDX 90, APH 52.15, DO 69.50, FTI 41.60, ETN 48.70, KLAC 40, SPRD 17.50, JCP 32.50, VRSN 33. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are PAAS 34.65, RIG 71.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are ACN 55.75, TWC 74.25, PX 102.80, AN 33.70, NSC 70, ABC 40.30, COV 54, BBBY 53, AAPL 340, AVGO 32.50, APD 91.50, UNH 47, CHRW 77.50, WYN 32.75, PKI 27, MXIM 26.05, ROC 50, LTD 38.10, A 47.50, CCK 38.60. Stocks that lost their 50 day MAs today were numerous and include MCHP IP IFF JWN IR JDSU WMB APKT MMM APKT CMCSA TXN GM HBI ARBA WNR EXPD AVT SBUX FAST APC CLR SGY POT RRC DECK SOA PAG FDX GSM NBL. Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are FAST 33, DFS 24.20, FCS 19, VFC 99.85, CMCSA 25, SAP 63, CHK 32, VLO 28, UA 69.70. Stocks that met 50 day resistance today were PLL HON BRCM EXPR RL VFC KO ORCL TS SE MCP ANR ATW TRN ATI APA CVX EOG XOM HP NE SPN VALE HUN.

Good luck.

The author owns HK TIBX.

Tuesday Recap

Markets responded very well to a new bailout for Greece Tuesday. The indexes almost always anticipate, and when they took out there 50 day MAs last week, and stocks were breaking out, it was time to take notice. The difference today was the solid volume that backed the move up. And it did so in the wake of poor economic reports. Consumer confidence, business activity in the Chicago area and housing data all were soft. Good action in response to bad news is reassuring. Markets lost steam midday, only to storm back in the last hour to close upon their highs for the day. More bullish behavior. Did end of the month buying contribute to the days gains? Who knows. Just respect the market and its actions. The Nasdaq led with a 1.4% gain, compared to the S&P 500s 1.1% gain. Dollar weakness, due to Euro strength, helped some commodity sectors. Ags did well, and SQM staged a breakout within the ag group. It also hit an all time high. Others hitting all time highs included NFLX PM UNP. AAPL, the 800 pound gorilla had a stellar day, rising more than $10, or 3%. PVH gained in after hours trading on earnings. Tomorrow not much on the earnings front with the stocks we follow, but economic reports include construction spending, car sales, mortgage applications, and the ADP employment report.

With the improving market leading stocks can now be bought as they emerge from bases in solid volume. They include 3 week tight patterns TWC 78.75, DTV 50.90, WYNN 151.83, EL 104.40, TPX 66.43, MWV 34.61, SAPE 14.88, WAT 100.04. Cup with handles are SYK 64.71, ABB 27.68, NSC 75.06, MOLX 28.20, TEL 38.16, HK 27.40, HON 62.38. Square box ALB 71.45, AGP 71.81, VIAB 52.03, CSX 79.59, ACN 58.31, TDC 56.68, CHKP 56.01. Double bottoms are APC 81.68, CLR 69.72, POT 61.90, MON 74.56, PLL 58.99, RRC 57.63. Flat bases are PX 108.55, SBUX 38.31, EMC 28.80, FAST 34.98. Cup bases are HOT 65.61, AN 36.32, CY 24.03. Double bottom with handles are EXPD 55.40, EXPE 28.19, TRW 59.04. Cup with high handles are VMW 99.29, AVT 38.10, XLNX 36.59.

Stocks which can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are VFC 100.25, ANR 55.25, ATW 43.60, FMC 85.25, CAR 18.15, VPHM 19.55, CBE 65, PLL 57, SAP 63.25, TRN 34.85, APH 54.60, TTMI 17.60, IVZ 25.25, KKR 17.65, TROW 64.50, ATI 68.10, APA 126, CHK 32.25, CVX 106, DO 75.20, EOG 111.50, XOM 84.25, FTI 45.60, HP 64.25, HES 80.75, NBR 29.15, NE 42.80, RDSA 73, SLB 87.25, SU 43.50, SPN 38.10, VLO 28.20, DD 54.50, ETN 53.10, ARMH 28.90, KLAC 44.10, SPRD 20.20, AA 17.10, BHP 96.75, RIO 71, CLF 93.50. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs today were SOA PAG ORCL FDX GSM TS NBL SE TCK MMM PAYX APKT CMCSA TXN MCP GM. Stocks near 50 day support are HBI 29.70, APD 92, UNH 47.10, CHRW 77.75, ABV 30.50, WYN 33, ARBA 32.85, DHR 53.20, PKI 27.25, MXIM 26.45, LYB 41.50, PPO 61, ROC 50.50, LTD 38.45, YUM 53, WCN 30.25, TTWO 15.80, A 48, COF 53, BHI 72, HAL 48, IFF 63, CCK 39, TYC 48.50, PCS 17, AVGO 33, SMTC 26.80. Stocks that found 50 day support today were SBUX HUN JWN IR EXXI RRC SGY UPL WNR WMB IP TIN UTX JDSU MCHP OVTI.

Stocks near 200 day support are NKE 82.50, UA 58, DOW 34, BTU 59.80, ANN 25, JCP 32.95, JOYG 83, MDRX 19.60, VRSN 33.25, DE 84, JPM 42.45. WRC RHT JNPR all found 200 day support today while MUR SUN SWC all reclaimed their 200 day MAs. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are LRCX 48.25, VALE 32.85, MOS 72.25. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are LVS 43, NUE 42.95, CAM 49.80, EMR 56, F 15.10, SWKS 27.10. MAR BID MTL RIG PAAS all encountered 200 day resistance today.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are RCL 39.60, STJ 52, LULU 93.50, EBAY 32, WFM 63, CAT 108, PH 92, ADSK 43.75, DFS 24.40, FCS 19, BRCM 37. Stocks that found 50 day resistance today were NOV WLL AEM SCCO RL VFC RDC FCX DKS DIS KO. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are DECK 89, ABC 40.30, COV 54, BBBY 53, EXPR 20.60. TIBX lost its 50 day MA today.

Good luck.

We sold FCX just above 52 early today and for a time being looked great. We also sold BTU right about 62. We profited handsomely on both. Both rallied off their days lows but below were we sold them. We will look to reenter if they show continued strength.

The author owns HK TIBX.

Weekend Warrior

Markets rose Friday in light, pre-holiday trade. For the week, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell, although very slightly. Both indexes did manage to reclaim their 50 day MAs for the week. The only missing component has been volume. But we are seeing some leading stocks break out recently. For the week NFLX COH INFA RKT NTAP all broke out of bases. Many stocks have weathered the correction nicely and are setting up valid buy points that we will discuss in the next paragraph. Defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities have backed off their leadership roles this week, leading the way to the risk trade being back on. The dollar lost about 1% for the week, giving commodities a nice boost. Copper, coal, gold ETFs all rose between 1.5 and 2% for the week. Silver rocketed ahead more than 8%. Oil finished above $100. Economic reports for the week were soft, which has to be construed as positive given the markets decent showing. Durable goods orders and pending home sales were weak. Manufacturing numbers from both China and Europe decelerated. Tuesday brings Case-Schiller, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. PVH reports earnings after the bell On Tuesday.

Stocks near specific buy points include: 3 week tight patterns ADP 54.96, TWC 78.75, UNH 51.56, ANF 76.86, ERTS 24.15, DTV 50.90, WYNN 151.83, M 30.10, CHRW 81.31, EL 104.10, TPX 66.43, MWV 34.61, CTAS 32.73, SAPE 14.88, QCOM 57.93, WAT 100.04. Square boxes are APD 71.45, WYN 35.60, AGP 71.81, VIAB 52.03, ARBA 35.94, CSX 79.59, UNP 104.87, DHR 55.92, ACN 58.31, MCO 39.58, TDC 56.68. Double bottoms ANR 59.30, APC 81.68, ATW 45.20, CLR 69.72, BTU 68.40, RDC 42.31, FCX 56.59, POT 59.55, MON 74.56. Cup with handles are SYK 64.71, ABB 27.68, ITW 58.89, NSC 75.06, MOLX 28.20, TEL 38.16, PTN 31.89, HK 27.40, HON 62.38, MXIM 28.50. Cup with high handles are APD 96.10, WCRX 26.02, ABV 33.34, VMW 9.29, AVT 38.10, XLNX 36.59. Cup bases are GOT 65.61, AN 36.32, JBL 23.19, IRM 35.60, CY 24.03. Flat bases are PX 108.55, SBUX 38.31, SCSS 17.96, EMC 28.80. Double bottom with handles are NKE 86.63, EXPE 28.19, TRW 59.04. 4 week tight is PKI 28.85.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 50 day MAs and their buy stop spots are VFC 100, FMC 85, CAR 18.20, VPHM 19.50, PAG 20.60, PH 92.40, ORCL 34.25, APH 54.50, TTMI 17.60, IVZ 25.20, KKR 17.70, TROW 64.50, TS 48.50, TKR 52.20, APA 126, CHK 32.45, CVX 106, CXO 101, XOM 84.25, HP 64.25, NOV 75.25, NBL 93.60, SPN 38.15, TCK 53, WMB 31.30, WL 68.40, DD 54.50, ETN 53.30, HON 59.45, MMM 94.30, PAYX 32.30, AAPL 343, ARMH 28.80, TXN 35, AEM 65.50, BHP 96.50, MCP 65.50, RIO 70.75, SCCO 37.45, AGU 88. Stocks that retook their 50 day MAs Friday were SOA DOV GTI CLR DRC SGY WNR TIN JDSU ALV. Stocks near 50 day support are HBI 29.50, CE 47, EMN 101.40, LYB 41.50, ROC 50.30, AET 40, HS 40.20, WLP 74, AMZN 188, COST 78, JWN 46, IR 49, WCN 30.05, CHKP 52.70, TTWO 15.80, A 48, BP 45.25, BHI 72, EXXI 34, HAL 48, MRO 52, NFX 72, SUG 28.55, IFF 62.95, CCK 39, IP 30.10, VCLK 16.10, RVBD 35.75, PCS 17, ALTR 45.25, ADI 39.60, SMTC 26.50. Stocks that found 50 day support Friday were HUN TIBX EXPD ARW COF TYC UTX IBM MCHP.

Stocks near 200 day support are WRC 54.25, DOW 33.95, EBAY 29.50, CBE 58, MDRX 19.60,
RHT 43, VRSN 33.15, FDX 90.15, OMC 45.15, JNPR 36.10, KLAC 40, SPRD 17.55, SLW 34.25, CMI 101, DE 83.75, JPM 42.45. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 200 day MAs and their buy stop spots are BID 43, SUN 40.45, MOS 73, SWC 20.25. Stocks that can be shorted at 200 day resistance are LVS 42.75, RCL 40, MTL 27.55, NUE 42.90, ACI 30.75, CAM 49.80, WFT 20.40, EMR 56, LRCX 48, VALE 32.50. RIG PAAS both found 200 day resistance, while MAR found support there. SWKS lost its 200 day MA Friday.

Stocks that can be shorted at 50 day resistance are RL 127.50, UA 69.50, STJ 52, LULU 93, ANN 30, JCP 37, WFM 63, WSM 41.75, DIS 42.05, GC 43.95, ADSK 43.65, TRN 34.60, UPS 73.60, DFS 24.35, FTI 45.50, HES 80.50, NE 42.75, SU 43.50, FCS 19, NXPI 30.50. Stocks that found 50 day resistance Friday were SCCO GM SLB SE CMCSA BRCM RIO PCLN DKS KO ATI APA ATW. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 50 day MAs and their sell stop spots are DECK 88.50, ABC 40.30, COV 53.70, UNH 47.70, BBBY 53.10, FAST 32.40, LTD 37.70, MKC 48.50. VRSN APKT lost their 50 day MAs Friday.

Please wish every veteran you know a wonderful Memorial Day and any day you see a current serviceman or woman please thank them for their service.

Good luck.

The author owns HK TIBX BTU FCX.