DTV

Complete Friday Game Plan

Markets endured another mini roller coaster ride today and finished modestly lower. The Nasdaq assumed its customary laggard role falling .35%, compared to the S&P 500s .16% loss. Perhaps the Nasdaq will find a bid at the big round number of 2800. There are becoming less and less places to hide in this recent carnage. Maybe you would think I could park some money in phamra. Then you look at ABT down 13%, and clinging to 40 week support. MRK PFE are down 11 and 9% respectively. Even more breathtaking is the flush in the utilities. XLU is down 12% from its recent high, with former stalwarts NEE SRE enjoying temporary 40 week support, and DUK nearing bear territory. Again buying breakouts in this environment is toxic. Buying off support areas and trading them remains the best strategy. Today some nice reversals off their 200 day SMAs came from the likes of AKAM MON DHI TOL. Some stocks catching my eye as well are GOLD EOG. GOLD, one of my favorite gold names is at the moment enjoying 40 week support at the big round number of par. EOG COG continues to be my favorite energy plays. EOG found 10 week support today, and COG continues to trade tautly after its recent flat base breakout. Today AAII investment manager survey showed bullish advisers down 10%, which is a pretty good sentiment indicator. Bearish advisers grew 9%. Good sign for the bulls, but those indicators remain secondary to the all important tape. For you Knick fans out there, full disclosure I am a huge one, MSG is sporting a 44.85 flat base trigger that if they can take out the Spurs tonight could breakout. At least the chart looks that way!

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are GRA 60.80, LOW 30.75, SBAC 63.70, OCN 32.25. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were DFS AOL WNR GWR MA MHK AMT PPG LL AME.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are ASH 67.15, CBS 32.75, CTAS 38.75. Stocks that lost 40 week support today were TRN NXPI VZ DSW CRUS GG WYN WCC.

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Stocks that can be put on a watch list, and bought when market conditions improve, and their following specific triggers are cup with handles XRAY 39.88, CNC 44.40, ROK 79.06. Other cup with handles are ARG 91.40, MCK 96.18, VAR 71.49, CREE 32.15, ETN 50.93, PGR 23.29. Flat bases are SXC 17.69, HFC 42.43, AMP 60.57, DOV 61.74, SAP 73.96. Double bottom is PSA 149.94.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers and hold are SNI DDS POL. SNI took out a 57.85 flat base trigger back on 8/6. It hails from the media sector which has been hit just like everything else. Perhaps the most alarming move in the group was the NYT 22% drop 10/25. Others in the group having issues are NWS CBS MHP. DDS took out a 79.33 flat base trigger on 11/1. It hails from the retail sector which has had its share off stocks on sale, pun intended. WMT was a prime example today. As I like to say earnings moves normally find support or resistance at big MAs and today was no different. WMT slid, but the debacle was met with almost precise support at its 40 week SMA. POL took out a 17.63 flat base trigger on 10/24. It has been down 9 of the past 10 days and volume has been increasing as of late. With all these examples be nimble, because remember fighting a soft tape is no easy endeavor.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are TGT 63.60, MPC 54.65, SEIC 21.80, ROP 108.75, CAKE 34.50, TRV 69.60, ZMH 65.30, ARUN 20.20. M retook its 10 week MA today. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are SLB 71.15, APC 72.25, CRM 144.50. Stocks that retook their 40 week MAs today were DTV TRIP VIAB CERN.

Good luck.

The author owns FNF.

 

Complete Tuesday Game Plan

Markets were somewhat subdued but did move from green to red, back to green, them flat. Volume was soft. The S&P 500 continues to spoon its 40 week SMA, much like the Nasdaq did from 10/23-11/06 until it finally gave way 11/7. The Nasdaq which has been lagging  closed in the red, albeit barely, and closed near its lows of the session for the 4th consecutive session. I continue to lean bearish, although corporations seem to be saying otherwise. Merger Monday, saw a couple deals with LUK taking out JEF, and SHW doing the same with a company in Mexico (Comex). That is on the back of last weeks deals with PCP-TIE, and PCLN-KYAK. The premiums have been healthy as well. In tech I am starting to like the SMH, while I am beginning to frown upon the XHB. Among the semis we have recent strength from ARMH, and of course the nice beat by QCOM last week. Bases are being formed by ADI CREE MXIM. The SMH itself is looking to reclaim its 10 week SMA, and can be bought with a buy stop above that line at 31.85. XHB can be shorted with a sell stop below its 10 week SMA at 2505. More weakness was seen in the group today by DHI which displayed a big bearish today on earnings. Among individual names I am watching PETM, a former leader, is quickly becoming a failure. It looked like it was in the midst of a bullish double bottom base with a 71.63 trigger, now looks like a broken chart, painting an ugly looking head and shoulders with its only hope being potential 40 week support 2 points from here.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week SMAs and their sell stop spots are EGO 14.30, EXH 19.70, SI 100. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were IAG INXN RMD. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week SMAs and their sell stop spots are ADBE 32.20, FMC 52.20. DTV lost its 40 week MA today.

Stocks that can be put on a watch list, and bought once market climate improves, and their following specific triggers are cup with handles BEAV 46.28, VAR 71.49, ARG 91.40. Flat bases are CPB 36.38, FIS 34.95, PKG 37.08, SXC 17.69, GGC 40.98, HFC 42.43, AMP 60.57, ATW 49.85. Double bottom is PSA 149.94, and 4 week tight pattern is STZ 37.08.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakouts triggers are PHG EFX COG. PHG took out a 25.10 flat base trigger on 10/17. It is basically the Dutch GE, involved in many different industries. 10 week support is a little extra cushion just below that trigger near 24.45. EFX took out a 49.56 cup with handle trigger on 10/15. Since then it has bullishly ignored the overall market downtrend and traded very tightly with  weekly closes all within .63 of each other. MCO in the group is trading well, but ADP CLGX have not. COG took out a 47.35 flat base trigger on 10/26, and has stubbornly held onto those gains ever since. It is demonstrating solid relative strength in the energy sector.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week SMAs and their buy stop spots are CAT 86.40, MPWR 19.90, PRXL 30.80, ZMH 65.30, SJM 85.80, EBAY 49, MKC 62.60. CTRX retook its 10 week today. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week SMAs and their buy stop spots are CRM 144, LNKD 102.80, AKRX 13.25, UAL 21.65. IMAX retook its 40 week MA today.

Good luck.

The author owns ITW FNF.