STZ

Complete Thursday Game Plan

Markets plunged Wednesday, ending near session lows, on accelerating volume. We are clearly in correction mode, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are now firmly below 40 week support. Are we oversold? Of course. Could we have a strong snap back rally in the face of all these market headwinds? Of course. But they should be eagerly sold into. Today no sector was immune, and it seemed like the benchmarks are making their bets that we could be headed back into a recession. The transports were hit hard today with the big boys UNP KSU FDX all falling more than 3%. GE, an economic bellwether, fell more than 3% as well, falling below its 40 week MA . It is now well below its 21.29 cup with handle trigger from 9/6. Another economic sensitive name WHR had an ugly outside day after kissing par. Among names that may be ripe for a buy as they come into support areas are AOL. AOL is almost back to its enormous 22% move after earnings 11/6. 10 week support is right at 36, and could offer good risk reward there. It almost feels as if Elaine Garzerelli is going to pop out, after dusting off her bear suit, and make another crash call. The markets have that feel where there is still no panic. Investment advisers that are bullish still remain above the 50% threshold, although this weeks gauge following last weeks election should change that scenario. Many charts as well as individual equities have been broken and can take a long time to mend. Be small, and be nimble, and do not attempt to be a hero.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose 10 week support and their sell stop spots are HLSS 17.25, BCS 14.30, OCN 32.15. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were ICON PKG STZ LZB CTRX EXH SHLD MTB HON EMN SLW RYL FISV PIR APH. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week MAs and their sell stop spots are WYN 49.50, BRO 25.35. Stocks that lost 40 week support today were IVZ LULU TSCO LMT EMR ZION FMC VIAB FII WFM PEP.

Stocks that can be put on a watch list until market climate improves, and their following specific triggers are flat bases DOV 61.74, CAR 18.00. Cup with handle is CREE 32.15. Other flat bases are MAS 16.58, SXC 17.69, HFC 42.43, AMP 60.57, ATW 49.85, SAP 73.96. Other cup with handles are ARG 91.40, MCK 96.18, VAR 71.49, ETN 50.93, PGR 23.29. Double bottom is PSA 149.94.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are JBHT LKQ LEG. JBHT took out a 59.57 double bottom with handle trigger 11/6. It demonstrated solid relative strength today from the transport sector. ODFL is still acting well in the group, while CHRW is at a critical juncture right now as it rests right near 40 week support. LKQ took out a 20.11 flat base trigger on 10/15. It hails from the auto parts sector, and ORLY and AZO are trying to cling onto 40 week support of its own. LEG took out a 25.40 4 week tight pivot on 10/16. It has lost ground 6 consecutive days, but its action has been somewhat tight, and not many stocks are still trading above their former breakout triggers.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week MAs and their buy stop spots are ROP 108.75, TRV 69.60, ARUN 20.20, CAKE 34.50, SRE 66.80, ZMH 65.30. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week MAs and their buy stop spots are PX 108.50, CRM 144, TRIP 36.75.

Good luck.

The author owns FNF. We sold ITW for a 2.10 loss as it lost 10 week support.

 

Complete Wednesday Game Plan

Markets recorded another roller coaster day, as they shrugged off early weakness, went positive, then bled into then close to finish near their lows. Again this is classic bearish action. The Nasdaq is now a hair from the definition of a correction, now 9.79% off its recent high. The S&P 500 had a weak outside day today, to close decisively below its 200 day SMA. I get the feeling many are waiting for the "flush" to capitulate, but I fear we may get that, yet minus the rebound. Cash looks very attractive here and comforting. Taking a look at some of the best moves from the day, and they came from our basic needs. Food. CPB took out a 36.38 flat base trigger, HSY SJM MKC also did some heavy lifting in the group. Shelter. HD rose smartly on a solid earnings report, threatening to take out all time highs set back in late 1999. Clothing. Some of the days biggest winners were among the retail group. DKS TJX, and KORS after a pre market scare all rose nicely today. So there you have it, the basic necessities of life shining today. The RTH reflected the strength with a bullish outside day. Other ETFs that caught my eye was the greenback UUP. Looking like its running into 40 week resistance near 22.30. It has shown very solid action however falling only twice since 10/17. Perhaps it will burst right through it, extending commodity weakness.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week SMAs and their sell stop spots are MTB 97.20, DPLH 31.40, HIG 20.20. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week SMAS and their sell stop spots are WFM 89.40, ZION 19.45, FMC 52.20. USB BYI both lost 40 week support today.

Stocks that can be put on a watch list until market climate improves, and their following specific triggers are cup with handles MCK 96.18, ETN 50.93, ICON 20.09. Other cup with handles are BEAV 46.28, ARG 91.40, VAR 71.49, PGR 23.29. Flat bases are MAS 16.58, PKG 37.08, HFC 42.43, AMP 60.57, ATW 49.85. Double bottom is PSA 149.94, and 4 week tight pattern is STZ 37.08.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakout triggers are HUN LZB URI. HUN took out a 16.45 flat base trigger on 11/2. It is holding just above that pivot and trading very tightly. It hails from the chemical sector which is back on the rise once again. Some names in the group performing admirably are POL ASH GRA. LZB took out a 15.78 cup with handle trigger back on 10/18. It is trading just above that pivot and is part of the home building sector. ETH is acting well within the furniture group too trading just below its cup base trigger it broke out from 10/19. HD had a nice day today following a nice earnings beat. URI took out a 40.12 cup with handle trigger on 11/1.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week SMAs and their buy stop spots are SRE 66.80, WY 26.95, CAKE 34.50. Stocks that retook their 10 week MAs today were SJM MKC  FMX. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week SMAs and their buy stop spots are TRIP 36.75, AGCO 45.95. Stocks that reclaimed their 40 week MAs today were LTD UA.

Good luck.

The author owns ITW FNF.

Complete Tuesday Game Plan

Markets were somewhat subdued but did move from green to red, back to green, them flat. Volume was soft. The S&P 500 continues to spoon its 40 week SMA, much like the Nasdaq did from 10/23-11/06 until it finally gave way 11/7. The Nasdaq which has been lagging  closed in the red, albeit barely, and closed near its lows of the session for the 4th consecutive session. I continue to lean bearish, although corporations seem to be saying otherwise. Merger Monday, saw a couple deals with LUK taking out JEF, and SHW doing the same with a company in Mexico (Comex). That is on the back of last weeks deals with PCP-TIE, and PCLN-KYAK. The premiums have been healthy as well. In tech I am starting to like the SMH, while I am beginning to frown upon the XHB. Among the semis we have recent strength from ARMH, and of course the nice beat by QCOM last week. Bases are being formed by ADI CREE MXIM. The SMH itself is looking to reclaim its 10 week SMA, and can be bought with a buy stop above that line at 31.85. XHB can be shorted with a sell stop below its 10 week SMA at 2505. More weakness was seen in the group today by DHI which displayed a big bearish today on earnings. Among individual names I am watching PETM, a former leader, is quickly becoming a failure. It looked like it was in the midst of a bullish double bottom base with a 71.63 trigger, now looks like a broken chart, painting an ugly looking head and shoulders with its only hope being potential 40 week support 2 points from here.

Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 10 week SMAs and their sell stop spots are EGO 14.30, EXH 19.70, SI 100. Stocks that lost 10 week support today were IAG INXN RMD. Stocks that can be shorted as they lose their 40 week SMAs and their sell stop spots are ADBE 32.20, FMC 52.20. DTV lost its 40 week MA today.

Stocks that can be put on a watch list, and bought once market climate improves, and their following specific triggers are cup with handles BEAV 46.28, VAR 71.49, ARG 91.40. Flat bases are CPB 36.38, FIS 34.95, PKG 37.08, SXC 17.69, GGC 40.98, HFC 42.43, AMP 60.57, ATW 49.85. Double bottom is PSA 149.94, and 4 week tight pattern is STZ 37.08.

Stocks that can be bought as they retest prior breakouts triggers are PHG EFX COG. PHG took out a 25.10 flat base trigger on 10/17. It is basically the Dutch GE, involved in many different industries. 10 week support is a little extra cushion just below that trigger near 24.45. EFX took out a 49.56 cup with handle trigger on 10/15. Since then it has bullishly ignored the overall market downtrend and traded very tightly with  weekly closes all within .63 of each other. MCO in the group is trading well, but ADP CLGX have not. COG took out a 47.35 flat base trigger on 10/26, and has stubbornly held onto those gains ever since. It is demonstrating solid relative strength in the energy sector.

Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 10 week SMAs and their buy stop spots are CAT 86.40, MPWR 19.90, PRXL 30.80, ZMH 65.30, SJM 85.80, EBAY 49, MKC 62.60. CTRX retook its 10 week today. Stocks that can be bought as they reclaim their 40 week SMAs and their buy stop spots are CRM 144, LNKD 102.80, AKRX 13.25, UAL 21.65. IMAX retook its 40 week MA today.

Good luck.

The author owns ITW FNF.