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13Apr 2024

Technology Sector Review: 4/15/24

Saturday|0 Comments

Tech Listlessness: The old saying goes too "never short a dull market". And looking at the XLK WEEKLY chart below shows little movement, now just 3% off most recent all-time highs and falling 5 of the last 6 weeks. That could be the bullish take. Bears would state this indicates fatigue and churning action. Notice the doji candle 3 weeks ago that is often a good sign of at least exhaustion, and worst a change in the prevailing direction. Many would say that AAPL is the culprit, and with a good point as it makes up nearly 20% of the ETF, and it did display good action toward the end of last week, up more than 4% Thursday (easily its best advance of 2024), and Friday showed excellent relative strength up almost 1% with the Nasdaq off 1.6%. It did decisively recapture the 21 day EMA, and notice it is a rare name showing positive RSI divergence (a bit misleading as that was able to occur because of its prior outsized weakness). My feeling about the XLK is a visit to its 21-day WEEKLY EMA will give it a chance to reset, as it did in late October 2023. That would be roughly another 3% haircut from here and put it in a 5-6% correction mode, which could then after the rest give it stamina for the seasonally strong second half of the year.

10Apr 2024

Technology Sector Review: 4/11/24

Wednesday|0 Comments

A League of Its Own:   Some names are simply outliers. They are just different and all others would be happy to be mentioned in the same sentence. The daily chart below of NVDA is a classic example. It has sprinted above the competition and will likely not look back. It is looking at a possible 3-week losing streak, but notice on its WEEKLY chart, each time it has recorded a 3-week losing streak the very next week has advanced since late 2022 (keep in mind there were only two examples, both in the second half of 2023 in quick succession). Take note of the seasonality strength in May, the second-best month of the year the last 5 years up almost 17% and CLOSING the month higher than it started. As it has receded volume on the WEEKLY chart has been tame, especially compared to trade during the 11-week win streak that transpired immediately beforehand. Looking at how far it is to its most recent 52-week highs one has to respect that NVDA is "just" 11% from its annual peak while peers SMCI and AMD are 26 and 27% from their respective peaks.

9Apr 2024

Technology Sector Review: 4/10/24

Tuesday|0 Comments

Slippery Slope:   It is well known that technology has not been living up to its traditional leadership role. On a YTD basis, it is still in the middle of the pack up 7%, and of course, with tomorrow's CPI a lot could change quickly. The daily chart of the Nasdaq feels like it is stalling, although give it credit for being just 2% off its most recent all-time highs even though it has declined 4 of the last 5 weeks (one could interpret that as churning too). The WEEKLY chart shows it is also still nearly 2000 handles above its 50 WEEK SMA. Peering inside the sector semis are bending, but have not buckled yet with the SOXX hanging in and CLOSING positive Tuesday even with NVDA and SMCI off 3%. The latter is now about 100 handles below the very round 1000 number which we wrote recently about the level being a bearish island reversal (notice now it is clinging to the 50-day SMA and it does not feel like it has a very firm grip). If one were to look at the Bollinger Bands they are tightening which speaks to a big move coming the direction however ambiguous. Tighten your seat belts for the rest of this week.