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Latest From The Blog
Technology Sector Review: 7/16/19
Scale Matters: We frequently mention the importance of some of the largest names in the market, as their performance dictates not only the PRICE action of the major indexes, but investor psychology. Below is a chart of the conduct over the last 100 days of MSFT, AAPL and the S&P 500. One can see AAPL has more than doubled the gain of the SPX, while MSFT has tripled it. Softee REPORTS earnings Thursday and AAPL later this month. With the latter, readers know we are proponents of the round number theory and AAPL has now recorded 10 consecutive CLOSES above 200. Immediately prior to that the 9 days between 6/18-28 all either traded above it intraday or came very close with ZERO finishes above the round figure. That level continues not only to be a line in the sand for the individual stock, but that of the Nasdaq as it represents more than 6% of the benchmark. Leaders Wobble But Some Do Not Fall Down: Former leaders turn into laggards from time to time. It is always refreshing to see fresh names take their place as some do not adjust. Some just need a prudent pause. This chart below of ANET, may be a good example, is looking for its first five week winning streak now since late 2017. For those who think this has made a nice move already it still trades 16% off most recent 52 week highs and it did register a huge from from the rough 100 number to the 300 figure between January '17-mid'18. The right side of a cup base is taking form, and it looks like it wants a gap fill to the upside sometime this year from the 5/2 session. Examples: Social media platforms have been doing just fine recently. FB is on a 5 week winning streak that has jumped 17%, and the last SIX all CLOSED at the top of their weekly ranges. SNAP has tripled since late last December lows, and PINS has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern. Another example is the chart below of TWTR and how it appeared in our 7/11 Technology note. We are coming into earnings season and this name reports on 7/26 before the open, but is carving out a nice cup base after a near precise gap fill. It is quickly approaching a 41.02 cup base pivot, and this name should at the very least continue to garner plenty of attention coming into the presidential election next year.
Industrial Sector Review: 7/15/19
Industrial Revolution: The group via the XLI has been on a run, higher 5 of the last 6 weeks and this week added 1.1%. It was by far the best performer of the major 11 S&P sectors Friday rising 1.7%. Perhaps in some minds the run seems somewhat artificial as both UPS and FDX, big laggards, were upgraded this week by GS. Both names rallied more than 3% this week, but are well off their most recent 52 week highs. However if you look within the industrial group as a whole, there are patches of strength one can profit upon. The airlines, railroads and defense stocks have been holding up more of their fair share. Below is a chart of the XLI, and it is nearing a break above a cup with handle pivot. The ETF is looking at a potential FOURTH challenge of the round 80 number since January '18. Foreign Carriers: Yesterday in our energy note we discussed the strength in some of the international names. Investors would be wise to not eliminate these names in any group, of course if the chart is worthy. CPA looks good here as it cradles the very round par number, although it does not trade a huge amount of shares on a daily basis. But it has since some excellent accumulation recently with huge volume on 5/9 and 7/5, which both gained 19.6 and 7.5% respectively. A name that is a bit more liquid and also deserving of your attention is GOL. The Brazilian name is higher by nearly 300% over the last one year period and below we take a look at the technicals. Examples: The market has made a very comfortable rebound from last winters drama. Some name have acted better than others of course. Below could be a good example, with the chart of WM and how it was profiled in our 6/27 Industrial Report. It has been above its rising 50 day SMA all year with the exception of the first two sessions, and its uptrend is beautiful, slow and steady. The stock has lost ground on a WEEKLY basis just 4 times in 2019, and peers RSG and WCN are acting well too. Important as you do not want to be the only name carrying your specific group higher.
Energy Sector Review: 7/12/19
Energy Foibles: One has to put a few things into context regarding energy. It is just the 10th best major S&P sector of 11, but the XLE is still higher by nearly 14%, just over half a year into 2019. Those are respectable gains, but then one has to also acknowledge the nearly 50% weighting in the ETF by the top 3 components. Make no mistake about it, some former E&P leaders and services plays have been decimated. The energy group reminds me somewhat of healthcare, where each time the space seems to get going, it falls on its back once again. Below is the chart of the XLE and it is at a critical juncture here, nudged up against its downward sloping 200 day SMA. A move above could prove fruitful, but will it be yet another dead cat bounce? Heavyweight Battle One Sided: Although XOM still resides among the top 10 largest companies in the world (I believe at one time was the largest), and has a larger market cap than chief rival CVX, it is not translating into a better stock performer. Below we take a look at the ratio chart comparing CVX to XOM and one can see a glaring difference. CVX is just 3% off its most recent 52 week highs, while XOM lags trading 11% off its most recent peak. Its most recent issues with XOM, started with the 6 week losing streak the weeks ending between 4/26-5/31 that fell more than 13%. I just try to identify trends but perhaps the change in leadership from the respected Rex Tillerson has something to do with it. Examples: Weekly charts obviously give one a better narrative of what a chart is try to convey, of course if you have a longer term time frame. When a "cluster of evidence" comes into play, meaning 2 or more triggers are aligning with nearly the same pivot, one can be onto something. Below is a good example of that with the chart of NOV and how it appeared in our 6/25 Energy Note. The very round 20 number coincided with a bullish engulfing candle the week ending 6/21 which rose 6.6%. It is still a laggard down more than 50% from most recent 52 week highs, but currently is trading right at its downward sloping 50 day SMA. The line has been resistance since March. One can have a small dose of optimism with a couple of CLOSES above the line if it occurs.
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