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25Jan 2025

Technology Sector Review: 1/27/25

Saturday|0 Comments

Nasdaq Travails: Markets tend to bottom in a smooth, gradual, rounded fashion and top of volatile trade. The latter could be described as too what is going on currently with the Nasdaq. It is now finding difficulty at the very round 20000 number for the fourth time in just the last 6 weeks. Trade has been a bit wide and loose, hallmark bearish traits, and keep in mind the tech-heavy benchmark has doubled in PRICE since the consecutive doji candlesticks the first 2 weeks of 2023 (see my pinned tweet). Is fatigue setting in or at the very least does it need to continue to remain at this lofty altitude and trade sideways before a possible further advance? Remember I have stated that my belief was the Nasdaq would have trouble at 20000 due to the bearish MONTHLY shooting star candlestick in December, and we are now extended almost 30% above the 50 MONTH SMA. The stalling at the double bottom pivot on the daily chart below has to make one already cautious and the fact that next week starts a bevy of earnings, with AAPL META MSFT TSLA, and IBM all reporting adds to the concern. Mister Softee in my opinion has the best set-up after recently breaking above a double bottom pivot of 434.42. A move back toward that breakout and the gap fill from the 1/21 session should be bought by long-term shareholders.

23Jan 2025

Energy Sector Review: 1/24/25

Thursday|0 Comments

Service Interruption:  The energy equipment plays have lagged their production peers, but are they about to enter into the strong sectors 2025 fray? The daily chart of the OIH below shows a lukewarm positive session Thursday as a taut candle was recorded and bears were unable to press the pedal lower after Wednesday's drop of 3%. Round number theory has been a thorn in the ETF's side at 300 but it is not losing too much altitude from the level. Its first objective would be to reclaim the 50-day SMA and then if it can catapult 300 look for a beach ball held underwater type breakout. Large holdings within will have to do some of the heavy lifting, pun intended, if this is to occur. SLB completed a bearish evening star pattern Wednesday with a pushback at its downward-sloping 200-day SMA, and bulls do not want to see this give up the 1/16 gap. HAL has shown 3 straight days of CLOSING upon the lows. On the other hand, former leaders turned into laggards like TDW and VAL, look like they are offering good risk/reward here. We looked at the former in our 12/30 Energy Note here. Not much is expected from this space and that is precisely the reason it may surprise. Wait for a move above 295 then add to through 300. Let it prove it to you. 

22Jan 2025

Consumer Sector Review: 1/23/25

Wednesday|0 Comments

January Delivery:  Can TSLA deliver a CLOSE in January above the MONTHLY cup base pivot of 414.60 on the chart below? This name is in the crosshairs of the new administration and looks like it has the wind behind its back. Often when a stock records a breakout during a certain period, but can not CLOSE above it it can spell disaster. The fact that bears have been unable to push this lower after December's bearish shooting star, has to be considered a victory for the bulls. It finished 85 handles off the intramonth highs and in January is going for a rare 3-month win streak (just two have happened since Q4 '21, in January-March 2023 and May-July of the same year). The WEEKLY chart sported a bullish engulfing week adding 8% last week and since the election has produced other robust gains of more than 20%, the weeks ending 10/25 and 11/8. Adding to the bullish theme is the bull flag on the ratio chart against AMZN and the bullish WEEKLY golden cross. Getting back to the MONTHLY chart below with the bounce off the very round par number at the nadir of the cup base a CLOSE above the 414.60 trigger next Friday would carry a measured move toward the low 700s, not out of the realm of possibility as call activity has been in that area. Can it deliver?