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Technology Sector Review: 7/1/25
Semi Pause? Things are not supposed to go up in a straight line. The semiconductors have shown overall strength since the early April bottom and against software has been firm for the last 8 weeks. Its 200-day SMA is starting to slope higher for the first time in 2025, and the 50-day SMA is quickly catching up, seemingly ready to record a bullish golden cross. Overall the group, via the SOXX, is still lagging 11% off its most recent 52-week highs while the IGV is just 1% off its annual peak. The daily chart below of the fund shows some dubious candlesticks late last week but PRICE is still charging higher. But it should have investors a bit on edge as a prudent pullback would be at least welcome. Of course, on Monday we have our MONTHLY candles but there is not much significant with the candles themselves, but notice with just the fourth touch of the rising 50 MONTH SMA in the last decade with the big reversal in April afterward PRICE tends to rise significantly (this should gravitate toward the overbought 85 RSI area which it did in 2017-18 and 2020-22). The WEELY chart did manage to register a breakout above a double bottom pivot of 237.61 last week and look for a powerful move into year-end. But there is no reason why this can not pullback a bit into the 225-230 range before the next leg up.
Financial Sector Review: 6/27/25
Regional Differences: There has been a bifurcation in the financial arena between the regional banks and the traditional money centers. The XLF has been in the driver's seat overall but during the last 10 weeks, the KRE has been acting better as seen on the ratio chart. On a YTD basis, the KRE is still lower by 2%, while the XLF is up 7%, and while the XLF is trading just 2% off its most recent 52-week highs, the KRE is 15% off its annual peak. Time for some mean reversion? Looking at the top 3 holdings in the well-balanced KRE, each has broken above bull flags. EWBC is inching above the very round par number, a feat in itself, and a break above a 95 trigger carries a measured move to 122. CFG could see a potential measured move to 51 after taking out a 42 bull flag pivot, and MTB on its WEEKLY chart just recorded its first bullish MACD crossover in one year and looks ready to travel to the very round 200 number in a double bottom base. It is no coincidence that regionals have firmed up with the 10-year looking for a third straight WEEKLY loss, but as it broke below the 200-day SMA Thursday, let's be careful with the euphoria as 2 of the last 3 times it did that the yield quickly recaptured the secular line.
Financial Sector Review: 6/26/25
XLF Heavyweights: When one looks at ETFs, sometimes the top-heavy ones are a double-edged sword. Today we will take a peek at some inside the XLF, which some consider essential for the overall group to contribute to an ongoing rally. The top holding in the fund, in BRKB at more than 12%, has certainly lagged down 10% from its most recent 52-week highs (the XLF is just 2% from its annual peak) but looks like a good risk/reward situation here. Notice how touches of the 50 WEEK SMA below have given the stock some breathing room for future advances and the last 4 all recorded bullish candlesticks there too with a harami in March 2023, morning star in October 2023, and then engulfing candles this January and April. This top holding could provide some juice for the XLF to run if it can end this rare 3-week losing streak by Friday's CLOSE (just one other has occurred since November 2023!) Other influential names to watch include GS which is acting well POST breakout above a double bottom with handle pivot of 617.81 from 6/11, and encapsulating the entire 5-month pattern is an add-on, but devilish, 665.66 cup base pattern here that ws taken out on Wednesday. A break above that trigger could carry a measured move to 890 sometime in 2026. GS is crushing BRKB since the start of April as seen here on the daily ratio chart.