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Latest From The Blog
Technology Sector Overview: 2/25/19
Mister Softee Acting Anything But: Quietly Microsoft has become the biggest component in the Nasdaq, so perhaps we should pay more attention to this "old tech" software name. Of course it hails from the top performing software sector, although semis are making a run at them as we discuss later. Currently it trades just 4% from most recent all time highs, while AAPL still languishes 26% off its own ascent. Give the Nasdaq credit for outshining the Dow and S&P 500, up 13.4% YTD (although that trails the Russell 2000 up nearly 18% in '19 so far). Furthermore it is acting well even as the big dogs GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT, AAPL are higher by just 7, 9, 9 and 10% trailing the Nasdaq's YTD advance. Bulls can declare confidence, as if they can get going that will act as a nice tailwind for the rest of the year. Chip Green Shoots? The semiconductors have been playing second fiddle to the software space for some time, but it may be ready to stand on its own two feet and shine. One must realize both of these groups have been doing a ton of the heavy lifting for technology overall, and software still looks very firm (TTD today is a great example). On a relative basis it looks to be acting a bit better than software recently. AMD is higher by 32% YTD, XLNX strength continues to impress, and INTC's 8 month cup base is looking better with every passing week. Lets these two critical sectors try to outdo one another, as it is good for the overall market. Examples: As the market rally rolls along, tells can be seen by stocks that fail to show any vigor. The chart of SONO below and how it appeared in our 2/12 Technology Report could be a good example. A downtrend started nearly immediately after coming public last August. Surely it was ill timed as the market debacle of late last year was about to begin, but its failure to rebound at all was alarming. The stock trades 53% off most recent highs, and poor relative strength was witnessed this week falling almost 3% as the Nasdaq recorded its NINTH straight advance rising .7%.
Industrial Sector Overview: 2/22/19
Industrial Strength: We know the vast majority of a stocks movement is directly tied to the sector it hails from. Find a top performing group and purchase the best of breed names. The industrial space would be an area to dedicate your attention now. The XLI sports the best YTD return thus far in 2019 among the 11 major S&P sectors (sizable advantage by more than 3 percentage points over 2nd best energy group). Rails have been a big contributor to the overall move, and thats a good sign for the economy as goods are being transported (UNP and NSC trading near all time highs). All aboard. Losing RedHeaded Stepchild Status: Contrasting ing big names on ratio charts, is a good way to illustrate which stocks the market is deploying capital too. Today we look at the relationship between UPS and FDX. The former has been a notable out performer compared to FDX. UPS is peeking its head above its 200 day SMA here, while FDX still lingers 40 handles below the long term secular line. Many like to play the mean reversion game, but we prefer to buy strength and sell weakness. UPS now sits 11% off most recent 52 week highs, while FDX trades 32% off its own. The dividend yield is also more attractive with UPS at 3.4%, and FDX at 1.4%. Examples: We mentioned yesterday that stocks in the consumer space that have exposure to the housing group have witnessed a rebound. Today we highlight a name from a different group, the industrials. Below is the chart of LPX and how it appeared in our 1/30 Industrial Report. Like many stocks it began a nice, gradual bottoming process, an ideal scenario. It has since broke above a bullish inverse head and shoulders and has now recorded consecutive six CLOSES above its 200 day SMA.
Consumer Sector Review: 2/21/19
Shopping For Bargains: 2019 has been an extraordinary year as all of the major S&P sectors are in the green, and the top 8 are all higher by double digits. The XLY has advanced nearly 12%, and we are not even 2 months into the year (and that is with top component AMZN still in bear market mode down 21% from most recent 52 week highs). Some former leaders are holding recent earnings gaps very nicely, including CMG, COLM, DECK and VFC. The chart below of YETI was another example, but todays bearish engulfing candle warrants caution. WMT is an exception, as it followed through to the downside Wednesday after yesterdays bearish shooting star candle. These Names Not Sleepy/Lazy At All: The S&P 500 has not behaved drowsy at all in the last couple months, but its behavior has been outshined by some of the homebuilder periphery plays. Below shows the action in the stocks of LZB, TPX and SNBR compared to the index. Each of the three aforementioned names have recorded breakouts, and more importantly have acted well POST breakout. They are all up between 30-41% in 2019 thus far already. Those returns are nothing to sleep on. Examples: Some of the homebuilding related sub sectors have been acting very well. The XHB now sits just 10% off most recent 52 week highs, and has jumped 10% the last 3 weeks alone after a break above a 3 week tight period. The 3 weeks ending between 1/11-25 all CLOSED within just .17 of each other. Below is the chart of a beneficiary of that move, MLHR and how it appeared in our 2/11 Consumer Report. Last week it demonstrated excellent relative strength gaining 6.2% and look to add to this name above a WEEKLY double bottom pivot of 40.75.
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