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2Dec 2023

THE WEEK AHEAD: Starting 12/4/23

Saturday|0 Comments

"I hope you win the war you tell no one about." -Unknown The Golden Goose: As equity markets continue their roar higher, gold does not want to be left behind. On the MONTHLY chart below Gold can be seen acting well in October, a tough one for the equity markets and a response many would have thought logical given its traditional "defensive" status. That month gold rose almost 6% and for good measure last month tacked on another 2.2% and in December will go for a rare 3-month win streak (which would be just its second time since early 2020). The reason I am bullish on gold and keep in mind it has a recent correlation to the S&P 500 is the fact that it is not acting jittery at the very round 2000 number as it has in the past. It backed off there with dubious candlesticks with a spinning top in August 2020, a shooting star in March 2022, and back-to-back spinning tops again this April and May. The MONTHLY bull flag below shows a path to the very round 3000 number if it can CLOSE above 2100 on 12/29. Overall notice too how gold bottomed last November with equity benchmarks with a bullish engulfing candle (which ended a 7-month losing streak) at the rising 50 WEEK SMA. It recorded that same candle this October.

1Dec 2023

Industrial Sector Review: 12/4/23

Friday|0 Comments

Not Recessionary: The industrial space as a whole has come to life during this one month plus market surge. And in particular a couple are screaming no recession forthcoming. The JETS ETF is now higher 4 of the last 5 weeks, albeit from a very low trajectory, but it signals a consumer willing to spend on discretionary items. More relevant may be the chart below of the IYT, which shows some possible good things on the horizon as we know goods need to be shipped and it shows up in the PRICE action. Railroads are acting well. CSX broke above a double bottom with handle trigger of 32.74 Friday. UNP, the top holding in the fund, is building the right side of a cup base. To be frank I was surprised to see UBER as the second largest component, although perhaps a smart idea by the selection committee to inject some growth into it. UPS, which I have always liked FDX more, recorded a bullish three white soldiers WEEKLY pattern this week. Overall the industrials over the last one month are holding in there with some of the best actors with the XLI up 10%. Give the group some respect.

30Nov 2023

Consumer Sector Review: 12/1/23

Thursday|0 Comments

Pick Your Hemisphere:  The XLY is dominated by two names in AMZN and TSLA. The former is acting better just 2% off its most recent 52-week highs while TSLA is stuck in neutral, 20% from its annual peak made on 7/19 at the very round 300 number. Tesla attempted to break above a bull flag Wednesday and did so early on only to reverse, no pun intended, by the CLOSE. Below is the chart of AMZN which is hanging near 1 1/2 year highs. Its WEEKLY chart is sporting a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern aligning roughly with the very round 150 number. The daily chart has recorded a bunch of bearish candles which may indicate this recent run is showing signs of fatigue. It started on 11/15 with the bearish engulfing candle, then doji candles on 11/21 and 11/24, and a spinning top on 11/27. South American peer MELI looks better as it is nearing a bull flag measured move to 1650 (can also be interpreted as a double bottom with handle base). Over the last one month period MELI has gained more than 30%, tripling the return of AMZN over the same time period. Elections have consequences.