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5Jul 2022

Energy Sector Review: 7/6/22

Tuesday|0 Comments

Who Wants To Be The Next Leader? It may sound strange that we are referring to energy in the past tense, but the break last month on the XLE was severe. The MONTHLY chart recorded a long bearish engulfing candle, and it seems now that FOMO within the sector has turned into panic selling. One wants to see an "orderly" pullback into support, and the XLE has been anything but that with a 17% slump the week ending 6/17 on well above average WEEKLY volume. Oil is flirting with the very round par number, and it has been mentioned that if that cracks decisively it may open the door for other major S&P sectors to find a footing. Software has been acting well as of late and with semis recording a nice reversal perhaps technology will be ready to assume leadership status. The green shoots for "risk-on" are sprouting ever so slightly with the only 3 green sectors being discretionary, communication services, and technology. It is a good start but for it to continue I think energy has to continue to fall to see healthy capital rotation. 

3Jul 2022

The Week Ahead Starting 7/5/22

Sunday|0 Comments

Inflation Pause? Last Thursday we had the benefit of being able to examine some MONTHLY candlesticks. In general the longer the timeframe the more meaningful. The most powerful sector by far in the first half of 2022 was energy and that had a big impact, many felt a negative way on the consumer in a myriad of ways. Not just filling up at the pump, but the cost of the goods they purchased was also boosted as a result of the inflated PRICE. Below is the chart of the XLE and its MONTHLY bearish engulfing candle may be providing some relief. Round number theory came into play with a precise bounce off the very round 20 figure in March 2020, and the very next month recorded a bullish piercing line candle. Now the tricky part is the range between those two months was very large, like the present engulfing candle in June. The XLE doubled to a high above 40 just 4 months later until finally, a bullish morning star pattern was complete in November. The 20-point range we saw in June could see some wild swings and I would not be surprised to see it trade up to the middle of that range into the 80s, but I think June pretty much said energy inflation will be easing heading into the back half of 2022. 

1Jul 2022

Industrial Sector Review: 7/5/22

Friday|0 Comments

What The Truck? For whatever reason it may be trucking stocks have been acting soft. Certainly, oil comes into play and labor shortages, but here we feel that is interpreted through individual PRICE action on its chart. Former standout JBHT which 3 1/2 months ago looked wonderful at all-time highs following a cup base breakout is now 27% off that peak. From darling to dawdler. ODFL is another one that led and that name has nearly sliced off one-third of its value since early last December. And this is at a time where delivery services names are starting to heat up, at least technically speaking. Perhaps the hedged regarding fuel PRICES, but again the chart gives you a visual representation of what is going on under the surface. FDX slipped 8% this week falling every day and recorded a bearish WEEKLY engulfing candle. Contrast that with UPS which rose 1% this past week. To add to the mild confusion logistics play XPO and GXO 47 and 58% from their recent annual peaks. The Dow Jones Transport Index has now CLOSED the last 3 sessions near highs for the daily range and finding bounces near the 1300 number. Action within is enough to "drive" one crazy, pun intended.