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Latest From The Blog
Technology Sector Overview: 1/22/19
The More Things Change The More They Stay The Same: As much as we look for young, innovative companies, the fact is the Nasdaq is dominated by "old tech" names. The seven largest names in the index are AMZN MSFT GOOGL AAPL FB INTC and CSCO. A different "old tech" name that reports earnings next week, and just took out former highs made back in the summer of 2000 is XLNX. It sits just 2% off its peak, much better than nearly all technology names. The stock is just below a 95.28 cup base trigger, and if you subscribe to the theory that the big money is made sitting on your hands (I am) one has to deal with an earnings reaction four times a year. It is among the semiconductors too, that have been lagging in the technology arena. Give credit where it is due. What The HACK Is Wrong? With cyber security that is. The sub sector within software is not holding its weight compared to some of the better behaved peers. Below is FTNT from our 1/14 Technology Report that we were WRONG about. This week the stock LOST 3.8% as the Nasdaq rose by 2.7%. It is not within the top 10 holdings in HACK, but there has been some dubious moves elsewhere. FEYE fell 2.1% this week also showing weak relative strength. On the brighter side PANW is flirting with the round 200 number, which doubles as its 200 day SMA. One should keep an eye on CYBR as it has trouble CLOSING above the round 80 figure. Since last September it traded above 80 intraday 4 times, with zero finishes over the number. Examples: In the last few weeks I have heard the argument that even though the markets have rallied hard, its overall complexion was little changed. The reason being no new 52 week, or all time highs. That debate is no longer valid as a slew of software leaders have surged to heights they have never seen, even as the Nasdaq remains in correction territory. The relative strength that shows is notable and a good example of this is the chart below of VEEV and how it was presented in our 1/14 Technology Report. It blasted above the very round par number on Tuesday and never looked back. Add to this above the cup base trigger of 109.15.
Industrial Sector Overview: 1/18/19
Industrial Revolution? The markets have a very short memory as 2019 is off to a fast start, and one can not blame their putting the ugly Q4 in the rear view mirror. Below is just what bulls want to see in the YTD returns, except perhaps for energy leading a few weeks into the year. All of the major S&P sectors are in the green so far, but lagging are staples and utilities. Two things come to mind about this nascent run. One good news is being interpreted so in PRICE action. Secondly the old adage states, "bull markets do not let you in", and that is how it feels presently. No pullbacks have been offered, with the exception of the 1/3 session. Take the Longer View: Thursday the industrials were higher by 1.7%, the second best behaved major sector behind just the materials. Give the XLI temporary credit for CLOSING above its downward sloping 50 day SMA today. On its WEEKLY chart below, obviously a longer time frame, it is still premature, but bulls can point to a couple positive technical aspects. Weakness was delivered following the inability to break above a cup base trigger of 80.76 the week ending 9/21/18 (base was V shaped which tend to be more failure prone) in a base 9 months long. We are still in no mans land on the ETF, but many individual names are setting up that we identify in the latter part of this report, including DE. Examples: The airlines have been seeing some turbulence recently, we spoke of this in our Industrial Report from 1/10, although collectively there has been some firmness. The JETS ETF is outperforming this week as the fund is higher by 2.8% this week heading into Friday. Like every group there will be winners and losers, and below is the chart of RYAAY and how it was presented in our 1/10 report. It is a laggard, if one turned its chart upside down it would be a beauty, down nearly half of its value from the most recent 52 week highs. This week it has declined nearly 6%, very weak relative strength. The measured move has not been achieved, and one may want to pair this name up on the short side with a leader like SAVE.
Consumer Sector Overview: 1/17/19
Consumer Ready For Post Holiday Hangover? The XLY, like many ETFs, is flawed somewhat with very heavy weightings near the top. This fund is no exception as AMZN represents nearly one quarter of it (more than 40% when you add the second and third largest holdings HD and MCD). We are just here to monitor PRICE action, so let's get right to it. The fund was on a major breakout watch, with a three week tight pattern at all time highs, the weeks ending 9/14-28/18 as all three CLOSED within just .20 of each other. That type of coiling action could lead to explosive moves but when it did not materialize, the chart folded like a cheap suit. Volume on this nearly 4 week comeback has been lukewarm, compared to the selloff on Q4 last year, but more concerning to me is the slope of the WEEKLY 50 day SMA is sloping lower for the first time in years. Retail Happenings: Although we are heading into earnings chaos this time of year, not to many retailers have been reporting just yet. That does not mean the group is not making headlines. JWN warned on holidays sales today and the stock dropped almost 5%. Perennial laggard BBBY, which traded at 80 in late '13, actually jumped on an earnings release. Last week rose more than 27%, its best gain in many years. For those that believe overall moves are getting a bit long in the tooth when the garbage names in the space start to bubble higher, they can point to APRN. A name that probably should never come public, it raged higher Tuesday by more than 45% in the best daily volume since coming public. It broke above its 50 day SMA for the first time since last July, but we know there are much better fish to fry. Examples: The casual dining space has witnessed some nice moves recently, most notably CMG breaking above a 501.08 double bottom trigger on 1/10, and then even more bullish retesting the pivot a couple sessions later and holding firm. Below is a chart of CBRL and how it was presented in our Consumer Report from 1/2. It was a play on a weak crude price as the vast majority of their establishments were located along interstates. A good tell may be the fact that the stock kept traveling northward even as oil appreciated. It is now more than 10 handles above the suggested entry and is looking to break free from the grips of its 50 day SMA. If it can do so the corresponding move could be tasty, pun intended.
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