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6Dec 2019

Healthcare Sector Review: 12/9/19

Friday|0 Comments

New Issue Mania: An influx of IPOs may not be the bearish precursor everyone thinks it is, as new issues rush to flood a hot market. Below is a snapshot of 7 recent new names that came public during a 2 week period recently in the healthcare group, as 5 of the 7 shown emanate there. Some of these sport decent charts as well, unusual as it takes time for a new chart to form a viable base. PGNY, has risen a perfect 7 for its first 7 weeks trading, and today pierced its head above a bull flag pivot of 29. Others like OYST, felt the power of round number theory as it was stopped precisely at the 20 figure Thursday, and today slumped 8%. At the other end of the spectrum is the action of some of the most mature names in the arena. AMGN looks poised to continue a robust move as it sports a nice looking bull flag pattern, and a break above 236 carries a measured move of 22 handles. BIIB is having a scuffle with the round 300 number, as 5 of the last 6 weeks were above intraweek, but only this one CLOSED fractionally above the figure, and the last 3 all CLOSED very taut, all within just 1.16 of each other. Very often explosive moves follow such tight consolidation.

5Dec 2019

Technology Sector Review: 12/6/19

Thursday|0 Comments

Semis Revitalized: The semiconductors may be getting their mojo back. Some of the heavyweights in the arena like AVGO, this week retested a bullish ascending triangle breakout that aligned with the very round 300 number (break carries a measured move to 340). SWKS is not shying away from battle at the very round par number, a figure it was not in touch with before dating back to July '18. QRVO and CRUS are maintaining high altitude too. Contrast that with some software names WDAY OKTA ZS CRWD SNPS and TWLO all lower by 5-10% over the last one week period. That action has weighed on the IGV this week as the ETF is down 2.3% headed into Friday. On the ratio chart below one can see the small drawdown for the SMH versus the IGV in November, as the IGV outperformed the SMH 4 of the last 5 weeks. That will most likely come to an end as the SMH is down .8% with one day left this week. The IGV looks like it could be a failed breakout above a 230.97 cup base trigger we spoke of recently, which lasted all of 3 sessions. Breakouts that unwind that rapidly, normally are asking for trouble.

4Dec 2019

Consumer Sector Review: 12/5/19

Wednesday|0 Comments

Comfort Of Home: There has been an incessant discussion whether the 10 year yield has bottomed as of late. Of course its behavior has major implications, not only on credit card and student loans, but probably most importantly mortgage rates. The housing sector has thrived on historical low rates, and below is the chart of the ITB showing its strong uptrend over the last year. A double top looked to be in place, but the ETF to its credit is hanging around, and the longer it remains at this altitude the burden of proof will remain with bears to make their argument that a possible large drawdown is in the near future. The near 4% combined loss the weeks ending between 11/1-8, in big volume, witnessed no follow through to the downside, and if that was the best the bears could do it was a weak showing. The last 3 months produced one WEEKLY double digit gain, with weeks ending 9/13, 10/11 and 11/8 jumping 22.8, 15.6 and 11.9%. Prior to this double digit jumps, there was not one before it dating back almost 3 years to the week ending 11/18/16. This frantic, erratic behavior is often seen at tops. It will be interesting to see who wins the tug or war, but the housing market is giving the edge to the bond market bulls.