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24Jul 2024

Industrial Sector Review: 7/25/24

Wednesday|0 Comments

Delivery Status: Some notable names in the industrial arena reported earnings yesterday and for many, it was simply business as usual. The most high-profile name was UPS and it "delivered" its 8th negative PRICE reaction in its last 10. It slumped 12% and is now 33% off its most recent 52-week highs and has now been making lower highs since February 2022. This looks like it wants to at least test the MONTHLY double-bottom breakout near 110 from July 2020, and it is now well below the big overall market rebound from last October. Both of its 50 and 200-day SMAs are sloping lower, the latter for one year now which truly shows the secular trend. It brings up the age-old question is this a function of poor management, or is it speaking of weakness in the overall economy? Or is it a function of AMZN simply imposing its will in the delivery services space? The same "issues" plaguing UPS do not seem to be affecting FDX, although it does feel a bit heavy just above the very round 300 number. This name is only 4% off its annual peak, excellent relative strength compared to UPS a third off its own. PCAR and AOS also crumbled Tuesday after REPORTING and falling to the tune of 10%, and each unraveling recent double-bottom breakouts.

23Jul 2024

Technology Sector Review: 7/23/24

Tuesday|0 Comments

Top Holding Lurking: We have spoke about the software carrying the baton in our 7/8 Technology Note as the semiconductors took a breather. Could they be ready for another leg higher? It has held up better as of late off just 4% from its most recent 52 week highs, while the SMH still lingers 9% from it own annual peak. A big part of that was last weeks action with the SMH slumping almost 10%, as the IGV lost less than 3%. This week so far heading into Tuesday the semis are snapping back adding 4% Monday as the IGV gained 1%. Below is the daily chart of ADBE and it shows this could be ready for the spotlight once again. One could interpret the pattern as a cup with handle but that comes in more clearly on the WEEKLY chart, as one can see here it fell more than 200 handles during a 10 of 17 week losing streak the weeks ending between 2/9-5/31. The add on after the entry through the daily bull flag would be a buy stop above the WEEKLY cup with handle trigger 580.65. Notice the volume during the 5 week win streak that added a combined 33%, and how it has tailed off the last 2 weeks as the handle took shape, just what you want to see if you are a bull. And it is doing so just above the 50 WEEK SMA too. 

20Jul 2024

Technology Sector Review: 7/22/24

Saturday|0 Comments

Breakout Negated? The Nasdaq recorded its second worst WEEKLY loss of 2024 last week falling 3.6%, and ending a 6 week win streak in the process. WEEKLY doji candles are rare for the Nasdaq with just 5 since the beginning of 2023, with two significant ones at the very round 10000 number putting an end to a very sloppy 2022. They were an excellent indication of a low being put in and the tech heavy benchmark nearly doubled in PRICE to this months highs. The week ending 7/12 recorded another doji and there was another recently the week ending 6/22, which was the middle candle in a bullish three week tight breakout for the Nasdaq which makes this weeks action a bit more concerning. We know the best breakouts tend to work right away, and if they fall apart rapidly afterward it is a red flag. The week ending 7/5 jumped 3.5%, during a traditionally strong holiday-shortened week, so for the index to retreat so powerfully this week should keep investors cautious.