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12Sep 2024

Technology Sector Review: 9/13/24

Thursday|0 Comments

Pick Your Bias: As a technician, one can change their mind pretty quickly depending on PRICE circumstances, but at the end of the day, they need to take conviction. The MONTHLY chart below of the Nasdaq has something for both the bull and bear case. Something that I did not point out on the chart was the last 3 months CLOSING very taut within just 132 handles of each other. This type of tight overall trade is often resolved in the direction which it came from and has the tendency to be very powerful if a breakout occurs. The back-to-back bearish MONTHLY candles the last 2 months should give bulls some trepidation but it my experience over decades of trading, bearish candles do not seem to act as well in an uptrend, as bullish ones do in a downtrend at the bottom. As long as the breakout to the upside remains intact stay optimistic. PRICE is omnipotent in my opinion. On the daily chart, a break above a symmetrical triangle pivot of 17625 would carry a measured move of 3000 handles with the width of the triangle trading between roughly 15700-18700.

11Sep 2024

Consumer Discretionary Sector Review: 9/12/24

Wednesday|0 Comments

The River is Flowing Again:  Denial is a river in Egypt, and perhaps what AMZN bears are feeling with this nascent push upward, but the Amazon in South America is gushing here. It feels like there may be a magnetic pull toward 200 in the near term, the location of a bearish gravestone doji candle on 7/9. The was the canary in the coal mine before the break BELOW a bull flag, and we know from FALSE moves come fast ones in the opposite direction. But it has since reset and one month ago it reclaimed its 200 day SMA and Wednesday its 50 day SMA. Baby steps. Below is the daily chart and this should gravitate toward the double bottom pivot near 190 soon, and its MONTHLY chart shows August recording a bullish hammer candle with a 40 handle range, but CLOSING just below the long cup base pivot of 188.41. It found support at the 50 MONTH SMA and notice volume has been indecisive since 2023. This action could be misleading, as volume tends to pick up once the naysayers convert to believers. Of course, it may or may not happen but a purchase here with a CLOSING stop of 175 seems like good risk/reward. 

10Sep 2024

Financial Sector Review: 9/11/24

Tuesday|0 Comments

"Banking" Gains?  The banks via the XLF have witnessed some strong moves in 2024 thus far being the second-best acting major S&P sector YTD up 19%. Action in the ETF as of late should have investors antennas perked with the volatility which is often indicative of topping behavior. PRICE action has been wide and loose and with the moves in best-of-breed names like JPM and GS was eye-opening Tuesday. JPM undercut its 50-day SMA bouncing off the very round 200 number with an 18 handle range (notice the doji candle from 8/29 near the end of an 18 of 19 session win streak). GS never really felt comfortable above the very round 500 number, rising above it 3 times since mid-July before quickly losing altitude. Bulls should be watching the JNK as it approaches the very round par number and Tuesday recorded a rare bearish engulfing candle. The last time that occurred on 8/1 saw a quick haircut back to the 50-day SMA. This fund is good to monitor risk on/off behavior not just for the financial group but the market overall.