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Energy Sector Review: 9/20/21
Sector Reinvigorated: The energy space has its mojo back. Measured by the XLE, the fund is the best major S&P sector out of 11 on a YTD basis higher by 32.9%. Over the last one month period, it is the second strongest with the XLE up 2.7%, bested only by consumer discretionary. The group was cruising along at the top of the sector leaderboard for most of the year, but underwent a hiccup as the XLE on a 3 month lookback period is the worst sector by far having declined by 7.7%. One has to give the group credit as many most likely expected it to run out of steam and rollover, as the XLE has been dead last on a YTD basis for 3 consecutive years between 2018-2020. Truth be told the group caught its recent bid on the strength of coal and natural gas. RRC sprinted to a 33% combined gain in the 2 weeks ending between 8/27-9/3. CEIX, which traded with a 3 handle last spring traded above 28 at one point last week. But some exploration plays are really prospering too. I would stick with that subgroup, with the XOP down 12% from its recent highs, while the OIH is down more than double that 25% off its June peak and stuck now below its 200 day SMA.
Consumer Sector Review: 9/17/21
"Used" Is The New "New": With all the recent supply issues, the automotive industry has been turned upside down. To this point, some have stated that in certain situations used cars would be worth more than new cars. Of course, the semiconductor problem has something to do with it as well. The auto parts plays have been acting well with AZO now approaching a double bottom pivot. ORLY is right at its own double bottom trigger of 608.32. PAG is now above a flag pivot of 92. Looking at names that actually sell used cars there are none larger than the chart below of CVNA. The stock is now 9% off most recent all-time highs and is higher by 4% this week headed into Friday. Its chart shows it gravitating toward a double bottom pivot of 363.19. Not all names in the space are behaving themselves, however. VRM, which we compare to CVNA on the ratio chart, is now 55% off most recent 52 week highs. It's still below the nasty 2 week losing streak, weeks ending between 8/13-20 that fell by a combined 37%.
Technology Sector Review: 9/16/21
"Stick Save" At The Round Number: Did the two doji candles recently on 9/1 and 9/4 do enough "damage" with a quick 400 handle decline? Of course, no one knows the answer to that question as we will only know in hindsight. Wednesday's bullish hammer candle at the 15000 number ended a 5 session losing streak, with all 5 days CLOSING in the lower half of the WEEKLY range. Perhaps investors were looking to get in early a day before Yom Kippur tonight, with the "sell Rosh Hashana, buy Yom Kippur" strategy (hat tip Krinsky). Volume was elevated during the recent 5 day losing streak, and today the volume was soft relatively speaking. That is ok as investors will most likely catch on if this rally into seasonality occurs, and it will show up in volume. Round numbers put a halt to the VIX again at the 20 figure, which has been an irritant for months. A large component in the Nasdaq in AMZN bounced off the 2400 number Wednesday, and MSFT burst above the 300 number to hit an all-time CLOSING high. Not bearish.