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Latest From The Blog
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RIO: Daily Look: Weekly look: CVS: Daily Look: Weekly Look: Weekly Look TSN (not much opinion on daily chart): FB: Daily Look: Weekly Look: AZN: Daily Look: DHI: Daily look: Weekly Look: MMM: Daily Look: Weekly Look: DIS: Weekly Look:
Bullish And Bearish Themes
Semiconductors Surging: Comparison To Nasdaq: The semiconductors have got their groove back. They were playing second fiddle to the software sector for months, but the semis are carrying the Nasdaq on its back. Perhaps they are giving software some time to rest before they reclaim the top leadership spot, but either way its a good sign for overall markets. All Semiconductors Are Not Created Equal: Below is a great illustration of the bifurcated nature that exists in all subsectors of market industries. It shows that trends are more likely to persist than reverse. Buy strength and sell weakness. Look at the disparity in these four "old tech" plays. XLNX and AMD are higher by 49 and 43% YTD respectively while MU and NVDA are up 31 and 33% in 2019. Favorite Three Semiconductor Ideas: KLAC: "Old tech" semi play higher by 35% YTD and 7% over last one year period. Dividend yield of 2.5%. FIVE consecutive positive earnings reactions up 4.9, 7.6, 10.5, 1.3 and .3% on 1/30, 10/30, 7/31, 4/27 and 1/26/18. Higher 11 of last 13 weeks and just 3% off most recent all time highs recorded this week. Enter on pullback into bull flag breakout at 118. Look for measured move to 132. Ratio Chart Comparing Two Former Rivals: These two prior generals in the space can no longer be spoken of in the same sentence. KLAC is just 3% off most recent ALL time highs, while AMAT trades lower by 35% off its own recent ascent. AMAT has very small dividend yield of .8% in contrast. ADI: Semiconductor leader higher by 25% YTD and 19% over last one year period. Dividend yield of 2%. FOUR consecutive positive earnings reactions advancing 2.5, 4.1, 2.1 and 2.3% on 2/20, 11/20, 8/22 and 5/31/18. Up 11 of last 13 weeks and once piercing resistance at round 100 number jumped a quick 10%. Enter on pullback into break above WEEKLY cup base breakout trigger of 103.69 at 105. MCHP: Semiconductor play higher by 19% YTD and lower by 12% over last one year period. Dividend yield of 1.7%. Down 18% from most recent 52 week highs and lower 4 of last 5 weeks, but most likely digesting 29% combined move during 6 week winning streak weeks ending between 1/11-2/15. Back to back positive earnings of 7.3 and 5.9% on 2/6 and 11/8/18 inspire confidence. Enter here after recent break above bullish ascending triangle, and successful gap fill from 2/5 session on 3/8.
Technology Sector Review: 3/25/19
Give Nasdaq Credit Where Its Due: The Nasdaq registered its second worst day in 2019 Friday falling 2.5%. The only other precedent this year was 1/3 when AAPL fell 10%. What happened the very next session? It ROSE 4.3%. Small sample obviously, but the bears have been unable to show much follow through to the downside. With the exception of the 5 day losing streak between 3-4/8, it recorded back to back losses just twice so far this year. Most concerning this week was the Russell 2000 falling more than 3.1% as the she small cap benchmark is often a good leading indicator. The fact that it is below both its 50 and 200 day SMA now, as the Nasdaq, Dow and S&P 500 are all above, is worrisome. Many declare its the large weighting of financials in the index, but as that group continues to melt it should have less an impact upon it. Semi Surrender? The semiconductors have been a bright spot in 2019 as well needed strength within the group emerged. They are now edging out software YTD with the SMH higher by 22.3% and the IQV has rose 21.9%. This week the SMH did record a bearish spinning top, known for its ability to forecast trend changes. It did CLOSE near lows for the weekly range, just like it did the week ending 2/8 (also a spinning top), which did NOT interrupt its ascent. From the week ending 12/28/18 it has risen 37% top to bottom, so a pullback is a good thing. Looking at leaders in the space even though percentage gains were rather large, the volume was tepid. I would have expected more, especially on a Friday. Next week should provide some clarity. Examples: Most breakouts tend to be retested to check their legitimacy. Below is the chart of ACIA and how it was presented in our 3/13 Technology Report, and this one is no exception. The move above a bull flag formation on 3/18 rose more than 3% on double average daily volume, exactly what you want to see. Thursday added another 4.4% on hefty trade once again, and then Friday swooned lower by almost 6%. Three of the last four weeks have CLOSED in the lower half of the weekly range and next week will be a big test for the name. Keep it on a short leash as we know the best breakouts tend to work right away.
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