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Latest From The Blog
Industrial Sector Review: 6/26/19
Transport Gloom: The industrials Tuesday recorded just their second 3 session losing streak in the last 3 1/2 months. That speaks to how well they have performed, even with the recent issues concerning BA and MMM, both of which still hover in bear market mode. Of course we can not leave out the real laggards in the room being the transports. The rails have held up well, but the services names in FDX and UPS have been off putting. The former is now 40% off most recent 52 week highs, and if one were to tell me the S&P 500 is just 1% off its all time highs with that name acting the way it has, I would not believe it. The airlines have not helped the industrials either, and below we take a look at the current IYT chart which is worrisome. Machinery Mismatch: The industrial machinery group, like all others has its share of leaders and laggards. Ratio charts separate the men from the boys. Names that have flourished this year include CIR GD and WWD. IR has been another solid performer higher by 37% YTD and 39% over the last one year period. On the chart below one can easily spot the disparity between IR and ROK. In fact ROK is LOWER by 3% over the last one year period. The ramp higher was caused by a 5 of 6 week losing streak from ROK the weeks ending between 4/26-5/31, that lost more than 22% from top to bottom. IR has CLOSED the last 3 weeks very taut, all within just .67 of each other. A big breakout is very possible depending on Fridays CLOSE. Examples: The saying goes the best offense is a good defense. It could apply to the group in the stock market as well as the XAR is higher by almost 30% YTD. The fund is higher 15 of the last 26 weeks, and 2 of the last 3 rose 4.9 and 3.2%. Below is a name benefitting from the love the space is receiving, AJRD and how it appeared in our 6/7 Industrial Report. It is higher 8 of the last 9 weeks, and again this week by .6%, after the prior week jumped 5.1%. The second time battling at the round 40 number has seen a decisive breakthrough. Expect this name to grind higher.
Consumer Sector Review: 6/25/19
Enter At Your Own Discretion: They XLY has produced a nice run recently, as the fund gained 12 of 13 sessions between 6/4-20. Now is the hard part. The bulls can declare that the ETF is hanging strong just off all time highs, the bears would state a double top. Looking at the top holdings, HD followed through to the downside after last Fridays bearish engulfing candle today. MCD has recorded FOUR bearish engulfing candles alone in the month of June, although it has the look of a bull flag pattern. Of course the 800 lb gorilla in the room AMZN looks strong just below a double bottom pivot of 1917.61. Let's take a look below at the actual XLY itself. Take Me Private One More Time: Sometimes when comparing rivals, one notices there is no rivalry at all. In the retail arena TGT has just squashed KSS, which is now lower by 45% off most recent 52 week highs. Below is the ratio chart with COST compared to BJ. It shows a stunning contrast, and this chart really accelerated when COST started June off on a 14 session winning streak. Last Friday did record a bearish shooting star at all time highs, but it may have been affected by quadruple witching. In addition BJ is a name that has been taking private a few times and reemerged as a public company, not the most bullish trait. Others that come to mind would be MIK or PRTY, both which now trade 60% off their most recent 52 week highs. Examples: Price action in my opinion is omnipotent. Often it will move a stock well before a news event comes out. Below is a good example of just that, with the chart of SBH and how it was profiled in our 5/30 Consumer Report. This name has been a laggard for a long time and after todays plummet of 17%, it trades nearly one half off its most recent 52 week highs. The stock ran into trouble with a very bearish large filled in black candlestick on 2/5 right at the very round 20 number. Before todays cratering lower it lost ground 8 of the last 11 weeks. Sell weakness and buy strength.
Technology Sector Review: 6/24/19
Software Leadership Grip Teetering? The battle between the semiconductors and software rages on. To be fair the combat regarding the two important groups has been one sided for some time. Software has reigned supreme, and to me that grip may be softening. The semiconductors have the burden of proof, to show they deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as software. The ratio chart shows perhaps the semis are looking to make a stand, as premature as it may be with a recent higher low. Looking at individual names in the chip space it is difficult to see a real leader, but the ratio chart may keep heading higher by default as software names look toppy. Not Such A "Secure" Name: Probably one of the better ETF symbols out their HACK, was all the rage not to long ago. The hype has settled down, but the importance of cyber security will never go away. The fund is digesting a 10 week winning streak that started 2019 off, and I was surprised to see CSCO as the the top component. Some names have not been acting well, with both PANW and FTNT in bear market mode down more than 20% from their most recent 52 week highs. Below is a real laggard in FEYE, now 29% off its most recent peak after having issues with the very round 20 number last fall. Examples: We have always mentioned how very taut, tight trade is a hallmark bullish characteristic (and the opposite wide and loose action is a bearish trait). Below is a good example of that and the chart of ROKU and how it appeared in our 6/17 Technology Report. This name has acted well versus technology peers throughout 2019, and now happens to be defending the very round par figure well. Leaders give one an opportunity to add on the way up, and this stock did just that breaking above a bull flag pivot near 85 last month, AFTER taking out a double bottom pivot of 71.40 on 5/9.
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