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Latest From The Blog
Discretionary Sector Review: 4/23/19
Amazon Envy: Can the bifurcation of the two most popular retail ETFs be explained by a single stock? The case can logically be made with the XLY currently trading just 1% off most recent 52 week highs. The performance of the XRT is a far cry from that, now lower by 16% from its most recent peak. The starkly different compositions of the funds has a lot to do with it. AMZN carries just a 1.3% weighting in the XRT, while the tech behemoth represents nearly 24% of the XLY. AMZN has run nearly 600 handles from the late December lows, and there could be a very valuable moral to the story. Concentration works better than diversification, when one has the right stocks. Builders Momentum Building: The ITB just enjoyed its first 4 week winning streak last week, for the first time since late December '17 to early January '18. The ETF has lost ground just 3 times in all of April so far, and the 4/2 session was lower by a whopping 2 pennies. DHI its largest component at more than 14% is in the midst of a 16 month double bottom base. LEN recently broke above a cup with handle base, with the trigger aligning with the very round 50 number. Below is the ratio chart of the ITB compared to the S&P 500, and its strength shows no sign of stopping with interest rate weakness a tail wind. Examples: Name changes rarely go over very well. Often it is an attempt to rid oneself of a poorly run company or reputation. Of course there are exceptions to every rule, and the Alphabet name change has been pretty good (AAXN from TASR not so bad either). Below is the chart of TPR and how it appeared in our 3/5 Consumer Report. The former COH now trades 45% off most recent 52 week highs in a thriving overall market environment. It has lost ground 8 of the last 11 weeks and this week is off to another rocky start down nearly 6% already. This stock is now below its December lows and is challenging the March lows here too.
RACE To The Finish Line
The automobile space has been slow to move over the years, pun intended. Names like F have seemed like dead money, HMC still trades 17% off most recent 52 week highs (give GM credit as it battles here with the round 40 number and still pays a handsome dividend of 3.8%). Below is the chart of RACE and how it appeared in our 2/27 Consumer Sector Report. And later we will take a look at its current chart. We always like to mention that the best breakouts tend to work right away and leading stocks will give investors a chance to add to their positions on the way UP. Here is a good example with the present WEEKLY chart of RACE. It has move 10 handles since the flag breakout above and now one can enter or add to with a buy stop above a 142.62 double bottom pivot. The name trades just 7% off most recent 52 week highs, while F is 21% off its own highs, TSLA is 29% off its own recent peak, and NIO is 65% off its September highs.
Technology Sector Review: 4/22/19
Canary Candles: The Nasdaq is flirting with all times highs once again, and there is the tendency to think a double top is being formed. It pays to be a skeptic as investors should always try to manage risk and take care of the downside. Other than that savvy market participants let their winners run. I happen to be a big fan of the candlesticks, although there are always secondary to PRICE action by itself. But they can give good clues as to what can potentially happen. This week the Nasdaq CLOSED less than 2 handles under the very round 8000 number. Monday, Wednesday and Friday recorded doji candles (Thursday a bearish engulfing) which often signal a fatigue of the underlying trend. Will they end up being yellow birds in a coal mine? Mister Softee: The last couple of weeks we have been stressing the importance of strength in AAPL to the overall markets being the Nasdaq's largest component. It has acted very nicely up better than 2.5% this week. This week lets see another "old tech" influencer in MSFT. These two names have leapfrogged each other recently for the worlds most valuable company. The behemoth will report earnings next Thursday after the close (last report fell 1.8% on 1/31, after the prior FOUR all rose by 5.8, 1.8, 1.6 and 2.4% on 10/25, 7/20, 4/27 and 1/31/18). On its WEEKLY chart it has acted well POST breakout from a nearly 5 month cup base pivot of 116.28 taken out the week ending 3/2. Examples: Below is the chart of HPE and how it appeared in our 4/8 Technology Report. This name is higher now 15 of the last 17 weeks, and is acting much better than HPQ which spun the name off in November '15 (HPQ is now 24% off most recent 52 week highs and has made lower highs and lower lows since the beginning of October last year as the Nasdaq has been doing just the opposite). HPE has lost ground just 3 sessions in all of April thus far, and is now 2.7% above a double bottom breakout pivot of 16.22 taken out on 4/10. The best breakouts tend to work out right away and this one is showing good action POST breakout.
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