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Latest From The Blog
Healthcare Sector Review: 6/20/19
Know Your Time Frame: Healthcare continues to be the "worst" performing major S&P sector YTD, albeit it is higher by more than 8% via the XLV. However for those looking for a silver lining it is the best performing major S&P sector over the last one month timeframe, edging out the materials and real estate groups. The XLV is looking for its first three week winning streak in the last 6 months, to show how uneven the space has been. Tuesday the ETF broke above a bull flag pivot of 92, and the breakout carries a measured move to 97. Today demonstrated good follow through up nearly 1%, and it is important as we know the best breakouts tend to work right away. Focus on the leaders in the nascent strength within. Silky, Smooth New Issue: There has been plenty of news in the healthcare group concerning M&A activity. DHR and GE have been in talks for the latter's biopharma business. HQY is acquiring WAGE, and last year witnessed some mega deals with CI buying ESRX and CVS swallowing AET. Amazon wanted a piece and bought Pillpack for $1 billion. This week saw PFE make an offer for ARRY, and should one expect this type of action to continue? No one knows, and is it a bullish sign that companies see value in peers, or is it a function of the depressed prices of many names in the group? Not only has there been plenty of M&A news, but IPOs continue to flood the market in the healthcare arena. The chart of SILK below looks attractive. Examples: The healthcare space has been anything but a leader in 2019, but when one can discover names that have been holding their own, or even outperforming in a firm capacity, once the group gets going again it could be one of the first to sprint out of the gate. Below is a possible example of NVCR and how it appeared in our 6/6 Healthcare Report. It currently trades right at all time highs, and did break above the 55.08 cup with handle pivot and has since risen another quick 10% plus. It has advanced 7 of the last 8 weeks, and this week is showing extraordinary power higher by 12% heading into Thursday.
Consumer Sector Review: 6/19/19
Not All Retail Created Equal: There are some startling differences in some of the most well known consumer ETFs. One happens to be trading just off all time highs, while the other the XRT is languishing well underneath both its downward sloping 50 and 200 day SMAs. Perhaps this is a lesson in concentration versus diversification, as the top 4 holdings in the XLY in AMZN, HD, MCD and NKE represent nearly one half of the fund. The XRT by contrast has no member being more than 1.75% of the ETF. The old adage goes "concentration creates wealth, and diversification preserves it". Of course one has to be astute in their stock selection, but the makeup in the ETFs previously mentioned are a good illustration of the old axiom. Vanity Group Leaders In Short Supply: The popularity of the selfie stick is so far in the rear view mirror it can barely be seen. It was a good indication however of the lengths many would go to make themselves look good. There certainly is a market for stocks in the space, albeit two names stand out head and shoulders above the rest, ULTA and EL. Below is the ratio chart of ULTA:SBH and shows just how strongly ULTA has outperformed its peer. SBH is not alone in its weakling status as ELF is also 37% off its most recent 52 week highs (AVP and COTY are well off their highs too, even with firm recent runs). Longs in the laggards have most likely had mascara running down their eyes. Examples: On strong sessions like Wednesday, many names will go higher as a rising tide will lift all boats. For those left behind, and not able to participate on a robust tape, one would be smart to tread with caution. A possible example of just this could be the chart below of SEAS and how it appeared in our 6/5 Consumer Report. The name lost 2% Tuesday, and is lower 7 of the last 11 days. A potential red flag was its inability to CLOSE above a 32.57 cup base pivot recently in a base that began the week ending 9/14/18. It is nearing a gap fill from the 5/24 session where the trade would be best closed out.
Technology Sector Review: 6/18/19
Stubborn Nasdaq: There are always two sides to every story, and in trading it is the bull and bear case. Each bias can be backed up by ones own thought process, but the only side that is correct in investing is PRICE. Below is the chart of the Nasdaq, and bulls can declare the index is not shying away from its 50 day SMA like it did last month, and that a double bottom formation is taking shape. Until that double bottom is taken out bears can state three lower lows, and that it is taking too much time to hurdle back above the 50 day SMA. Both narratives have their merit, but it will be PRICE action that determines the winner. The bears still have the burden of proof, as the markets have been robust for quite some time, but the bulls need to start proving their theory is worthy, by not wasting much more time. Success Attracts Attention: In the world of payment plays, the room is getting crowded. When achievements are made, competitors begin circling. Perhaps it is an act of flattery being the best form of imitation, and knowing it can be done. The pioneers that began the journey will have a head start, but newcomers will often be flush with cash and talent. Below we take a look at the ratio chart comparing SQ:PYPL, and while the former has been lagging its main rival, now 28% off most recent 52 week highs (PYPL trades right at all time highs), it is beginning to act better. Will it last? No one knows, but it seems like the names are abundant such as GPN PAGS and WP to name a few. Perhaps there is room for several players to flourish. Pay attention most to the ones acting well from a PRICE standpoint. Examples: We always like to mention that the best stocks will often give you a chance to buy on the way UP. Below is a good example of that with the chart of MSFT, and how it was profiled in our 6/3 Technology Report. This is probably one of the best in breed "old tech" names, and its inclusion in the software group does not hurt. This leader recently broke above a double bottom pivot of 130.56 on 6/7, and has now set up a bull flag formation. A break above 134 can be added to yet again, and would contain a measured move to 149.
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