Douglas Busch

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So far Douglas Busch has created 3892 blog entries.
30 Jun 2025

Technology Sector Review: 7/1/25

By |2025-06-30T18:31:49-04:00Monday|

Semi Pause? Things are not supposed to go up in a straight line. The semiconductors have shown overall strength since the early April bottom and against software has been firm for the last 8 weeks. Its 200-day SMA is starting to slope higher for the first time in 2025, and the 50-day SMA is quickly catching up, seemingly ready to record a bullish golden cross. Overall the group, via the SOXX, is still lagging 11% off its most recent 52-week highs while the IGV is just 1% off its annual peak. The daily chart below of the fund shows some dubious candlesticks late last week but PRICE is still charging higher. But it should have investors a bit on edge as a prudent pullback would be at least welcome. Of course, on Monday we have our MONTHLY candles but there is not much significant with the candles themselves, but notice with just the fourth touch of the rising 50 MONTH SMA in the last decade with the big reversal in April afterward PRICE tends to rise significantly (this should gravitate toward the overbought 85 RSI area which it did in 2017-18 and 2020-22). The WEELY chart did manage to register a breakout above a double bottom pivot of 237.61 last week and look for a powerful move into year-end. But there is no reason why this can not pullback a bit into the 225-230 range before the next leg up.

26 Jun 2025

Financial Sector Review: 6/27/25

By |2025-06-26T16:34:34-04:00Thursday|

Regional Differences: There has been a bifurcation in the financial arena between the regional banks and the traditional money centers. The XLF has been in the driver's seat overall but during the last 10 weeks, the KRE has been acting better as seen on the ratio chart. On a YTD basis, the KRE is still lower by 2%, while the XLF is up 7%, and while the XLF is trading just 2% off its most recent 52-week highs, the KRE is 15% off its annual peak. Time for some mean reversion? Looking at the top 3 holdings in the well-balanced KRE, each has broken above bull flags. EWBC is inching above the very round par number, a feat in itself, and a break above a 95 trigger carries a measured move to 122. CFG could see a potential measured move to 51 after taking out a 42 bull flag pivot, and MTB on its WEEKLY chart just recorded its first bullish MACD crossover in one year and looks ready to travel to the very round 200 number in a double bottom base. It is no coincidence that regionals have firmed up with the 10-year looking for a third straight WEEKLY loss, but as it broke below the 200-day SMA Thursday, let's be careful with the euphoria as 2 of the last 3 times it did that the yield quickly recaptured the secular line.

25 Jun 2025

Financial Sector Review: 6/26/25

By |2025-06-25T16:19:35-04:00Wednesday|

XLF Heavyweights:  When one looks at ETFs, sometimes the top-heavy ones are a double-edged sword. Today we will take a peek at some inside the XLF, which some consider essential for the overall group to contribute to an ongoing rally. The top holding in the fund, in BRKB at more than 12%, has certainly lagged down 10% from its most recent 52-week highs (the XLF is just 2% from its annual peak) but looks like a good risk/reward situation here. Notice how touches of the 50 WEEK SMA below have given the stock some breathing room for future advances and the last 4 all recorded bullish candlesticks there too with a harami in March 2023, morning star in October 2023, and then engulfing candles this January and April. This top holding could provide some juice for the XLF to run if it can end this rare 3-week losing streak by Friday's CLOSE (just one other has occurred since November 2023!) Other influential names to watch include GS which is acting well POST breakout above a double bottom with handle pivot of 617.81 from 6/11, and encapsulating the entire 5-month pattern is an add-on, but devilish, 665.66 cup base pattern here that ws taken out on Wednesday. A break above that trigger could carry a measured move to 890 sometime in 2026. GS is crushing BRKB since the start of April as seen here on the daily ratio chart.

23 Jun 2025

Technology Sector Review: 6/24/25

By |2025-06-23T16:19:41-04:00Monday|

Nasdaq Rolling:    Technology has remained resilient and even a brisk mid-day selloff of more than 200 handles Monday was not enough to deter this ongoing, impressive rally. Could it end tomorrow? Of course, but one must be exasperated if they have been trying to get short the market anytime since the 4/7 bottom. Below is the daily chart of the Nasdaq as it approaches the very round 20000 number, a level that gave the benchmark headaches in late 2024 and early 2025 as seen here on the WEEKLY chart. The semiconductors have come back to life as the WEEKLY SMH chart nears a double bottom trigger of 269.76 in a one-year base, and the SMH has advanced 9 of the last 11 weeks, albeit last week did record a doji candle after a handle run (and the week before was a bearish shooting star). Monday software via the IGV successfully retested a double bottom with handle pivot of 105.71. So when the semis and software are acting well technically it is hard to get too bearish. Among the big components to watch in the index MSFT and NVDA look fine, with the former touching all-time highs. If AAPL, the worst of the top 3 by far now 22% off its most recent 52-week highs, can break ABOVE 203 in a bearish head and shoulders that could give the Nasdaq a lift, especially if MSFT and NVDA need a chance to catch their breath.

21 Jun 2025

Consumer Sector Review: 6/23/25

By |2025-06-21T13:31:10-04:00Saturday|

No "DASH" For Trash: Looking over the components in the XLY, some have really struggled. The third largest holding behind the juggernauts of TSLA and AMZN, Home Depot over the last one month period has recorded back to back advances once on 5/29-30, and is in "bear market" mode 20% off its most recent 52 week highs. Since 3/7 it has swam below the 200 day SMA and we know nothing good happens beneath that secular line. ORLY, another top 10 holding has formed a bearish descending triangle not long after a 15:1 split, and it is not uncommon for stocks to struggle after undergoing one. As the selection committee for the XLY, one of the best moves they could have made was adding the daily chart below of DASH. A leader in every sense of the word, it is up 31% YTD and up nearly a double over the last one year period. On its MONTHLY chart in June it is peaking its head above a 215.35 cup with handle pivot, but must CLOSE above their on Monday June 30th to be considered legitimate. Notice how it seemed allergic to the 220 area as it was above the number for 3 months between September and November 2021, but all CLOSED well below it with finishes of 205.98, 194.80, and 178.77. How it ends June could be very telling.