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Latest From The Blog

Industrial Sector Review: 11/22/22

Monday|0 Comments

Small Buisness Optimism? To be certain I am far from an economist and have zero interest in becoming one. But it is widely known that small business is very important as they generate nearly all net job gains. When this segment of the economy is healthy it could be a good sign overall. Some companies have their pulse on this theme better than other and below is the chart of CTAS which I have closely followed in this regard. They are primarily a uniform play, however, do a multitude of services for small businesses. Again I am strictly a technician and therefore believe the PRICE action of a chart can tell you a lot about the industry it is in and also where it can be going. CTAS is essentially UNCH YTD but trading right off all-time highs and last week (up 1.2% as the XLI dropped .1%) bullishly digested the big 11/11 week-ending gain of 8.1%. At the expense of sounding like a broken record, we favor names that never went on to touch their June-July lows. This name could be ready to set up an add-on on the way UP with a bull flag, something the leaders very often do.

The Week Ahead: Starting 11/21/22

Saturday|0 Comments

Size Matters: As everyone looks to the direction of the greenback, interest rates, and crypto for signs of what the market may do next, could it be as simple as what the small caps do? Keep in mind this space tends to lead and remember how one of the most telegraphed breakouts in some time almost 1 year ago fell apart in rapid fashion. On the chart below one could see the very clean breakout above a flat base with the IWM jumping 6% the week ending 11/5/20. The saying goes "if it's obvious it's obviously WRONG" comes into play here. The ETF subsequently went on a 4-week losing streak falling by a combined 12%. It "led" in this situation too as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq did not start their descents until 3 weeks later (Dow fell roughly in line the same as the IWM). The point I am trying to make here is the IWM has been demonstrating some relative strength as the only of the 4 aforementioned benchmarks NOT to undercut their June lows. If they can break this string of lower highs that began at 220 to start 2022, could that be a sign that a real bottom is in, as they potentially "lead" to the upside here? A decisive CLOSING break above 190 next week could be the catalyst.

Consumer Sector Review: 11/21/22

Friday|0 Comments

Home Is Where The Heart Is: They say one's best investment they can make is their home. During COVID many upgraded their properties and a good indication of that was seen in the clever symbol POOL which ran from 160 in March 2020 to almost 600 last November. It has since retreated firmly and the chart of RH rose in a more robust fashion from 73 to over 730 between March 20'-April '21 (it was set back at the 300 number this month). Others that reported earnings recently in the arena include WSM and home improvement retailers like HD and LOW. Below is the chart of the ITB, a pure play homebuilder ETF, and it could be coming in to fill in a gap that completed a bullish island reversal from the 11/9 session in the near term. Obviously, they are interest rate sensitive and the group exploded higher on 11/10 up 11% after a "tame" CPI reading. The ETF is still 30% off most recent 52-week highs and if this fund can get back above its 200-day SMA promptly it would be a good sign for the overall group.

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