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Latest From The Blog
THE WEEK AHEAD: Starting 3/20/23
Going It Alone: The Nasdaq's relative strength is eye-opening against the major benchmarks, which in itself is a good thing, but can it really do all the heavy lifting? Below one can see the sizable differences as it is now higher by double digits again YTD after a powerful last week rallying more than 4%. The tech-heavy index is the only one of the quartet above its January highs, and the Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrials are now negative for 2023. The latter of course is outdated with just 4 of the 30 names in the PRICE weighted average true industrial names in BA CAT HON and MMM. Many will say that the "rolling" bull market is healthy as different sectors take their turn demonstrating leadership, (not too long ago we were speaking about just how firm the industrials were acting). Currently, nothing is "rolling" anymore, and in fact, on a one-month look back period the XLK is the only one of the major 11 S&P sectors in the green. This to me speaks of others needing to pitch in, because eventually, they come for all the groups. Tech is giving others a chance to catch their breath. Will they take that opportunity and recharge?
Energy Sector Review: 3/20/23
Is the Dam Breaking? The energy space is seeing money flow from the formerly very robust group into technology. Last week the XLE was the worst-performing major S&P sector dropping 7% in more than double the average WEEKLY volume, undercutting its 50 WEEK SMA in the process. On a YTD basis, it is the only major sector of 11 down more than double digits, and keep in mind this is the same group that rose more than 50% in both 2021 and 2022. It certainly has a target on its back with that type of outperformance and remember once trends are in motion they are more likely to stay that way than to reverse. Inside the arena, the energy equipment names were holding up best but the OIH is now in "bear market mode" 23% from highs made just in late January. It has now recorded back-to-back double-digit WEEKLY losses as the group lost its leader. We spoke of how it was unlikely to duplicate that consecutive yearly performance in our 2/1 Energy Note and it is looking more and more likely that may be the case.
Financial Sector Review: 3/17/23
High Yield Perking Up: As financials are still the worst-performing major S&P sector over the last one-month period, even acting worse than the cratering energy group, there are some very small green shoots. There are some better-looking candles currently, and remember these give you a good risk/reward entry as opposed to just blindly trying to catch proverbial falling knives. The XLF recorded a bullish engulfing candle Thursday after a spinning top candle the day before. Even the hardest hit KRE has not yet undercut the long-legged doji candle it registered on Monday. The IAK has a nice Thursday, although it did fill in an upside gap from Tuesday's session. Below is the chart of the JNK, which many market participants like to gauge "risk on" behavior with and it is ever so slowly breaking ABOVE a bearish head and shoulders pattern. Its 200-day SMA is sloping higher and has been support twice since the 6% haircut made from the bearish island reversal from 2/2.
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