Unconventional Wisdom:

Stocks and yields tend to move in the same direction, or at least thats what the textbooks say. The correlation usually is there, but there are certainly times when the relationship is out of sorts. This seems to be one of those moments. The chart below of the 10yr Treasury yield was left behind by the equity train, as it stalled out on January 18th, and has never recaptured those highs, even as stocks continue their furious run northward. Keep in mind trends tend to persist more than they are to reverse, and the downtrend is easy to witness on the chart below. The 8 of 9 week losing streak between weeks ending 11/9/18-1/4 is completely understandable. What is not is the 4 of 8 week winning streak since, and this week is lower by 4.7%. The path of least resistance is lower.

Foreign Finnie Force:

Emerging markets are at a critical spot here with the EEM trading above its 200 day SMA for 6 weeks now, and the ETF has recorded a golden cross as its 50 day SMA has pierced above the 200 day. Below we see a chart comparing some of the international names, against some domestic heavyweights. Interesting how they converged last July, and then again in October, but after the latter occurrence the foreign players separated themselves and performed much better. IBN is nearly 3% away from a cup base pivot of 11.36 in a base nearly 14 months long. Deposit capital on the long term breakout.


In the world of credit cards, their does seem to be two tiers. The starting line would be V, MA and AXP. All 3 names are right at 52 week highs (the back ups would be names like DFS, COF). Below is the chart of V, and how it was portrayed in our 2/22 Financial Report. A breakout above a 145.82 double bottom pivot was taken out on 2/22 and it as acted well POST breakout, important. On it WEEKLY chart it is looking to CLOSE above a 151.66 cup base pivot, which is very likely with just one session left in the week. The name currently trades at all time highs.

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