Santa Ripening Early:
The more a strategy becomes popular, often the less effective it becomes. December has often been thought of as a very powerful month. It looks like November is the “old” December. Keep in mind software, via the IGV, has CLOSED the month of December lower than where it began for FOUR straight years. It has made a nice run into the end of November, so perhaps it is setting up for a fifth consecutive stint of finishing beneath where it began. The semiconductors this week fell 2.5%, its worst weekly showing since the first week in August, recording a bearish engulfing candle at all time highs. The SMH is on a 4 session losing streak, and for SIX straight days has CLOSED in the lower half of its daily range, a sign of fatigue. AAPL ended an 8 week winning streak today, GOOGL lost ground everyday this week (albeit its just 3% off most recent 52 week highs), and it seems many are calling for a year end rally. It may transpire, but as always be flexible in your market approach and trade the market in front of you, NOT the one you want.