Semis Stalling?

The bulls did what they had to in regards to the semiconductors. Since the intraday lows on 3/18 to the highs today, the ETF has run higher by more than 35%. Pretty impressive move. We hear the constant chatter if this is a bear market rally, or a resumption of the prior uptrend, and here a line in the sand has been drawn. I think the burden of proof is now upon the bulls, and this roadblock at the 200 day SMA will be telling next week. Is this nascent rise getting fatigued and a bit long in the tooth, or was the overshoot to the downside exaggerated. Truth be told the software arena is going through the same thing with resistance at the 200 day SMA as well. Getting back to the chips AMD was rejected yet again at the very round 50 number, and my other favorite IPHI, while still above a double bottom pivot of 84.57 taken out on 4/6, is trading a bit wide and loose. It also has reversed very hard at the very round 90 number on a CLOSING basis the last 3 days as well as 2/5. The behavior in these two names going forward will have a big say in the direction of the ETF, and therefore technology as a whole.

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