Hard Landing:

When it comes to the overall industrial group on a YTD basis they are acting pretty well. The XLI is higher by more than 18% thus far. Building materials, transportation services, and heavy construction have been the strongest subsectors within. On the other hand, the laggards have been the railroads, aerospace, airlines, and marine transportation. Below we take a look at the JETS ETF and one can see how the persistent downtrend has been in place. It is now in bear market mode lower by 21% from most recent 52 week highs. The fund enjoyed a nice run from last March near 11 to a high of 29 this March. However since then since has declined 10 of the last 12 weeks, and this week headed into Friday is up better than 6%. Remember trends tend to persist more likely than they are to reverse so be patient with this one and not be a hero. Wait for a couple of CLOSES above the 200 day SMA, a good move from here, but its better than trying to catch a falling knife. On an individual stock basis SKYW looks somewhat attractive up 17% this week and above its 200 day SMA. Give it a couple more days to see if the move is just a bull trap.

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