Software Islands:
We like to state that bullish action is very taut trade, and just the opposite is the wide, loose, and erratic action that bearish markets demonstrate. From the chart below of the software space via the IGV, one can see how volatile the instrument has been. We circled the areas of both bullish and bearish island reversal which have taken place in just Q4. Now, these are unorthodox as they usually occur at tops and bottoms, but the one finished this week is forming in conjunction with the still upward sloping 200 day SMA. That upward sloping part is most likely “transitory”, a weak stab at recent humor. Now the ETF did find support at that secular line in early and late March and again in May. Each time it was touched it saw liftoff away from its relatively quickly. Now with the fund coming into contact again so quickly with that line after a push-off on 12/3 and 12/6, is that a cause for concern? I would say yes until it manages to distance itself again, which may not occur.