Energy Plateau?
Remember that in 2000 the energy sector accounted for 30% of the S&P 500 Index. In 2009 this figure was 15% and today it is 3%. That is one of the bullish thesis for the sector heading into 2022. So far so good as 2022 is starting as 2021 came to a close. The XLE, in 2022, is higher by more than 13% more than double its closest competitor in the XLF up near 6%. That does not mean the group will go up in a straight line. Remember between June-August of last year the XLE had a drawdown of 19% from top to bottom. Many market participants speak of the need to watch technology to see the overall health of the market, but should we be looking at energy in that same light? Whether one thinks it is a questionable leadership group, it has been the markets pilot higher for the better part of a year. Below is the chart of the XOP and is it merely stalling here before a cup base breakout, or is it a double top? Of course, we will not know until after it happens, but if the fund can not gather steam above the 112.95 pivot look for some back and filling, which should be taken advantage of for potential future gains.