Earnings Deluge:

In our last Consumer Note on 2/15, we made the statement that the XRT was at an inflection point with either the ETF trying to carve out the right side of a double bottom pattern or a bear flag. One week later it is looking like the latter. The fund lost 1.9% and the round 80 number is proving to be difficult on a WEEKLY CLOSING basis as all of the last five weeks were above intraweek, but ALL five finished beneath the 80 figure. In fact, two CLOSED with a 77 handle and two with a 78 handle so the pushback was strong. We are starting to see taut WEEKLY CLOSES as well, and from that type of consolidation usually comes powerful moves, mostly in the prevailing direction from which it came. Of course, earnings season will give more clues, and last week some names that reported and failed were CROX YETI DKNG and LZB to name a few (some of these were former best in breed names). Next week comes in heavy again as we get a look at HD M TJX FND PLNT and FL. Perhaps most telling was the positive action, albeit from a depressed starting point, was WMT a boring name that reeks of defensiveness.

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