Decoupling?
It has been well discussed the relationship between tech and lower rates. We are all aware. The QQQ added another 2% last week, on top of the combined gain of 8% the prior two weeks. The TLT has lost ground over the last 2 weeks and last week recorded a bearish shooting star candle after briefly touching above the round 120 number. Has tech held the baton long enough now that it is ready to march alone? I think the TLT can still be looked at in a bullish light as Friday tested the rising 50-day SMA for the initial time following the breakout above a bullish inverse head and shoulders, often an optimal entry. But could tech still trade higher without the comfort of lower rates? Of course, we will not know until after the fact, but we know from traditional standpoint rates are still very low. Last week the SMH is on a 5-week winning streak adding almost another 3%, and software gained almost 4%. Sure it would be nice to have the comfort of a lower rate tailwind, but technology has been climbing the wall of worry for almost 2 months now. Their quadriceps should be well rested from the underperformance prior, as on a YTD basis technology is still just the 9th best major S&P sector of 11 with a loss of 15%. Is this merely a dead cat bounce or the start of something real. I believe the latter.