Delivery Distinction:

Last Friday when FDX lost more than 1/5 of its value after an ill-received earnings reaction UPS fell in sympathy. Is that an opportunity? In recent years UPS is thought of in a more positive light compared to its main rival from a fundamental point of view, and in my opinion, deserves to be thought of from a technical stance as well. UPS is now trading 25% off most recent 52-week highs while FDX is now 41% off its annual peak. Last week FDX fell 23% in the second largest WEEKLY volume in at least 5 years and UPS slipped less than half of that but still took an 11% haircut. On the chart below one can see how UPS is holding up better as it has not undercut the late May-early June highs. Breakaway gaps lower should be perceived bearishly, like they are in opposite fashion to the upside, but I think UPS was unfairly punished. If it can remain above last Friday’s intraday low of 173.25 on a CLOSING basis I think that should be considered a good risk/reward situation.

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