Mixed Feelings:

The XLE we all know has been a very powerful gainer in 2021-22. On a YTD basis, however, the sector is taking a breather as it is the worst-behaved out of 11 down almost 3%. And to top that off seasonality on the XLE over the last several years is not positive. Notice on the chart how June begins a 4-month span of producing negative MONTHLY returns. It was interesting to see however starting in Q4 it has witnessed robust advances, especially with October and November averaging 7%. The two names that will have a huge influence on where the XLE is headed are XOM and CVX. Exxon, with the chart below, has been acting much better than Chevron as it trades 4% off most recent 52-week highs and CVX is 12% off its own annual peak. But even it has its flaws, reversing so quickly after a bull flag breakout, a red flag. Investors are still favoring the large mega caps with the XLE by 11% off its 52-week highs and the XOP by 26%. The reaction in Chevron in late January after an earnings reaction and a giant $75B buyback still sends shivers down the spines of energy bulls.

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