“Interest”ed Parties:
The 10 year continues to trade it in a very taut fashion, and technicians believe that type of action can lead to explosive moves. The motion in which it moves is often from the direction that preceded it. For the chart of the 10 year below that is obviously higher. That makes me think the resumption of this uptrend will continue higher in short order. We spoke of this in our last Financial Note about how the TNX was retesting a bull flag breakout and it was a line in the sand. Of course, where this instrument goes has big implications. A WEEKLY double-bottom pattern is still in place and notice how at the bottom of this chart we look at the WEEKLY Bollinger Band Width which is resembling a pulse that is not moving. The last time that happened was the second half of 2021 before a strong liftoff. Couple that with the bullish WEEKLY MACD crossover and the bullish narrative really takes shape. One would have to temper their enthusiasm if the 50 WEEK SMA was undercut. If not a breakout above the double bottom near 4.10 could see a move toward 5 which I believe will occur sometime in 2024.