Concentration Matters:

There is an old adage that says concentration builds wealth and diversification preserves it. As we take a look at the ratio chart below comparing the XLY to the XRT, we can see the superior behavior of the XLY as it forms a bull flag, which is a continuation pattern that usually breaks in the direction it formed. Again this is a relative chart, not absolute, so this does not mean both can not decline, it just states that the XLY is acting better, and in this current market environment means it is dropping less. In fact, in our Monday Consumer Note, we looked at the top holding in AMZN and were concerned with the number of times it was touching its 50-day SMA in such a short period of time. Wednesday it touched that line, for the sixth time in less than 2 months. I believe contrary to most technicians that the more a line is touched, the less reliable that support becomes. The rest of the week should prove very telling not only for AMZN, but the consumer sector as a whole with the stocks influence. Below we also take a look at how feeble the overall XLY is with, at the moment just 20% of its holdings trading above their 50-day SMAs. Vulnerability is pervasive and is best for a technical catalyst to emerge before doing anything meaningful within the group.

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