Rotation Underway?
The lifeblood of healthy markets is sectors giving way to others to take the lead. Rotation gives the leading groups time for a prudent pause to catch their breath. Technology has recorded a massive run this year with the overall group via the XLK up almost 50%. The space is rebounding nicely after its 2022 soft performance and notice if it can be the best-behaved actor in 2023 it tends to be a good omen for tech. In the years 2017, 2019, and 2020 it was the strongest of the major 11 S&P sectors, reinforcing the notion that once a trend is in motion it is more likely to stay that way than to reverse. Looking at the chart below since the bottom on 10/27 of all groups, notice that tech (red line) has essentially flatlined since November 20th as others are playing catch up and real estate (orange line) has now surpassed it and the financials (light blue), and discretionary (brown) are in fast pursuit. The question now is will this rest give it stamina as we head into year-end or has the sector run too far too fast?