Regional Differences:
Often when one hears this phrase they are thinking about international conflicts and the like. However, within the diverse financial space, there have been some issues obviously in the regional bank arena. The WEEKLY chart below of the KRE shows it at an inflection point. It is right back to the level of a break above an ascending triangle pivot of 47.50, and this is now 23% off its most recent 52-week highs (while the XLF that we wrote about recently is trading right at its annual peak). Coming into Tuesday it was on a 6 session losing streak, although none of the declines was greater than 1%. Notice the last 3 weeks have CLOSED somewhat tautly so it will be no surprise with a big move likely in the very short term. The WEEKLY ADX on the bottom of the chart will hold some clues, and if the green line can start to tilt higher in the next couple weeks that will be a good sign that the direction may be upward. Notice how the black line rising displayed some positive divergence in Q2 2023, which gave some foreshadowing of a potential rise that came in May. If strength can materialize going forward on the MONTHLY chart it will have to catapult the 50 MONTH SMA (notice how the top was called by consecutive doji candles in December 2021-January 2022).