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We like to mention very frequently that the best breakouts not only tend to work right away but act well POST the move. If that is the case one has to be skeptical about the long MONTHLY cup base that occurred in March as it was followed by that dubious dark cloud cover candle in April. April witnessed some large bifurcation as you can see here with steel plummeting more than 15%, yet Gold behaved itself jumping almost 10% (chemicals and packaging were also lower and these groups are economically sensitive, so not the best overall sign). NUE fell victim to round number theory at the 200 figure in April with a bearish engulfing candle and finding some resistance at the top of a bearish rising wedge pattern dating back to the start of 2022. CLF which has other things going on besides just watching the technicals was unable to record back-to-back up days for the whole month of April. Markets could care less about what I think but the past of least resistance to me would be a pullback to retest the recent cup base breakout near 86. Then a potential double bottom base could play out with a run toward the very round par number into year-end.

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