Markets put on a roller coaster of a ride this week during the latter half, but the S&P 500 managed to grind out a 5th consecutive weekly gain. It rose .5% on the week, and during this streak volume has risen with each successive week. The Nasdaq concluded the week fractionally lower. It has fell for 2 straight weeks now but the losses were negligible. For the year the Nasdaq is still ahead of the S&P, (Nasdaq up 29.8% YTD compared to the S&P 500’s 24.1%) but the gap is diminishing, and you get the feel the Nasdaq is just trying to run out the clock and its relative weakness recently has not gone unnoticed. Of course it was just its second day trading but TWTR dropped 7% Friday underscoring the tech lagging factor. Another FB in the works here? TWTR also backed off almost precisely at the round 50 handle on Thursday. Some groups ascending the ranks this week were aerospace and transports. Both vital to the economy. Among the transports perhaps the two best indicators of potential strength ahead are FDX UPS. They are enjoying solid YTD gains with FDX up 45% YTD, and UPS 35%, and have predicted strong holiday seasons. FDX alone this fall has had 9% weekly gains in firm trade the weeks ending 9/20 and 10/18, but it is currently extended. UPS is playing footsie with the big round par handle. I maintain a cautious long stance, although the apprehension increases with each passing day. Perhaps that is a good thing in a bearish way. Do the hard trade. Stay long until the technicals suggest otherwise.
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