Markets turned early gains into modest losses Wednesday. All in all a rare, relatively tame session. For the week the S&P 500 is down 1% and looking at a potential 4th CLOSE at the bottom of its weekly range in its last 6. Of course there are 2 more days to go and a lot can happen. As we discussed yesterday the last time the S&P 500 spent a considerable amount of time below its 200 day SMA for some possible comparison was the week ending 8/5/11 when it plummeted 7.2%. The very next week it bounced off the round 1100 figure and reversed 77 handles or 7% off intraweek lows. This time around the week ending 8/21/15 it dropped 5.8% and sliced its 200 day SMA much like the week ending 8/5/11. The next week it reversed 121 handles to CLOSE near intraweek highs as well. Going back to the 2011 scenario those lows were retested the week ending 10/7/11 and performed admirably from there. It did however take 20 weeks before it was ready to be comfortable with life back above the line (it CLOSED above the week ending 10/28/11 but retreated the very next week back below). This time around we are currently 5 weeks below the 200 day SMA and a retest has not yet occurred, so stay tuned. We still have some reservations and maintain a negative bias, has been in cash for some time now, when we look at meaningful names. UNP off almost one third from recent all time highs concerns us. WHR which we profiled in our Wednesday 9/14 Game Plan also worries us. Below is the chart how it appeared in our report and it is now below the round 160 handle which was important as it aligned with a 160.11 cup base trigger which was taken out the week ending 10/31/14 where it rose 8.5%. The base was almost 11 months long.
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