Retail Reveal?

We have spoken about the disparity in the weightings between the XLY and XRT, and as glaring as they are one could come away with conclusions. One we mentioned in our previous consumer note was that concentration could be a powerful force. To take a different viewpoint, the weakness in the XRT could be speaking to a softness in the overall consumer space. The ETF still trades 20% off most recent 52 week highs, and one positive is how tight the last 3 weeks have CLOSED all within just of .27 each other. That type of action usually leads to explosive moves, although the direction of the move is normally a continuation of the current trend, which is lower. 

Driving Away:

In the world of Uber and Lyft (both were sharply lower Monday), one could make the assumption that Avis and Hertz would have a tough go of it. However the charts are hanging in there, but as often is the case one will be acting better than the other. Neither of these names would be your so called leaders, but Avis is now trading 11% off most recent 52 week highs, while HTZ is nearly triple that at 30% off its most recent peak. CAR is working on a 4 week winning streak, where as HTZ recorded a nasty reversals at the very round 20 number the weeks ending 5/10 and 6/21. That path is certainly not on cruise control.

Examples:

Travel names in the leisure space have been in the news as of late. Last February Priceline changed its name to Booking Holdings. Other names like TZOO, which is an illiquid name, have been active as it blasted above an 18.43 cup base pivot on 5/6, but the joy was short lived as the breakout faltered and it is now 34% off most recent 52 week highs. Below is the chart of EXPE and exactly how it appeared in our 6/25 Consumer Report. The breakout occurred last Friday rising more than 2%, and let’s look for some follow through soon, as we know the best breakouts tend to work right away. 

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