Ten Year Clairvoyance?
Attempting to get a hold on where “risk on” may lie is a difficult task. Sure this is a technology note, but looking at the 10 year yield, has been a bit disappointing. Today is a good example. Recently stock and yields have traded somewhat in lock step, yet today as the ten year surged, of course from extremely depressed levels, equities did not follow suit. What could be more concerning is the fact that the ten year on the chart below, filled in a gap to the upside, and could potentially continue on its trend back lower. My guess is that stocks would become familiar with that correlation and retreat. Other worries are some of the leaders that have held up through the recent turbulence like DDOG have cracked. Once the ZM and EVBG’s start collapsing, IF they do, will that be a sign that the markets may begin a bottoming process, or will it bring a fresh, new batch of selling? I do not know, and no one else knows for sure. Let PRICE action be your guide.