Semiconductor Shortcomings:

We hear it all the time that the semiconductors must be firm, for the Nasdaq to thrive, and therefore for market participants to engage in a “risk on” mode (sure we have shifted to a services economy where software strength has been vital too). They are in every product we use on a daily basis, blah blah blah. Below shows the WEEKLY chart of the SMH, and this week has retreated by 17.6%, heading into Friday. A 4 week losing streak is about as sure of a guarantee you will ever see in markets, and the last time it achieved a four week consecutive drop were the weeks ending 5/10-31/19 that fell by a combined 17.5%. Obviously the velocity this time around is quite different, and perhaps we will fall into a familiar place as when the ETF behaved poorly in 2018. That year XLNX was the ONLY name acting well if I recall, and that is precisely the opposite with that individual name presently. In my humble opinion, trying to catch a falling knife is a frivolous venture. Wait for a bullish candlestick to evolve before getting involved. On the chart below they have been invaluable.

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