Sector Surge:
The XLE on a YTD basis still is still dead last within the 11 major S&P sectors, still off by nearly 34%. Its next closest competitor, is the financials which are off in the neighborhood of 22%, so one can easily see the discrepancy. However, the group has enjoyed a powerful move, as seen on the chart below on a one month period, now lagging just communication services, discretionary and technology, having advanced nearly 8%. Some may question that type of recent “leadership”, but bulls looking down at the bottom of sectors would see mostly “defensive” groups residing in the bottom 4, with real estate, healthcare, utilities and staples lagging. The XLE is now more than 40% off most recent 52 week highs, and dealing with the round 40 number, which is also the top of a bearish rising wedge pattern. My feeling is that it will try and fill in the gap to the upside from the 3/6 session near 42. The two elephants in the ETF in CVX and XOM have both already filled in those gaps, and CVX has the look of a bull flag, but forming underneath the 200 day SMA makes it failure prone.