Seasonality Issues:
The XRT rose each day this week, until Thursdays drop of 2.7%. It is not showing any follow through after last week rocketed higher by nearly 8%. Among its top 10 holdings that are acting well include SFIX GPS and GPI. That being said both GPS and GPI are now in correction mode off 15 and 16% respectively from this months highs. On the seasonality chart below one can see that November is a solid month for the ETF, but after that it enters its worst 4 month period, judging by the funds action the last 5 years. Concerning on the XRT chart was the break DOWN below a bullish 3 week tight pattern, that formed the weeks ending between 10/9-23, that all CLOSED within just .40 of each other. That type of trade usually resumes powerfully to the upside, especially at all time highs. The following week broke LOWER by 8.4%. Of course if you want average returns you trade the averages (in this case the ETF itself). Looking for alpha choose from leaders within that might be affected by a drawdown in the group, and trade accordingly.