Semis Stalling?

The semiconductor space is often compared to the software group. They are bitter rivals and I am fond of mentioning how the competition between the two for tech supremacy is a good thing. Technically the SMH looks a bit more fresh at the moment, with the IGV undercutting its 50 day SMA for the third time since September, and the SMH still 10% above the important moving average. On a YTD and one year performance basis they are remarkably similar with the SMH up 38%, and the IGV by 37%. On a one year look back period the SMH has advanced 47% compared to 45% for the IGV (SMH has a better dividend yield too at 1.1%, and the IGV at .4%). The SMH bottomed at the very round 100 number in March, and expect some possible fatigue here at the 200 number. Former best in breed AMD looks like it may be forming a bearish descending triangle with 3 lower highs since September, and support near 74 in September and late October.

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