Bloated Biotech:

The biotech space was supposed to get a lift in November on bullish seasonality patterns. Over the last one-month period the XBI has declined by 13%. On a YTD basis, it is lower by 19%, and comparing it to the XLV which has gained 15% we see there is a “risk-off” feel to the group. The more conservative PPH is higher by 7.5% so far in 2021, and the top-heavy IBB is basically UNCH so far, acting much better than its more “equal-weighted” XBI. AMGN and GILD are the number 2 are 3 holdings in the IBB and Amgen is doing its best to remain above the very round 200 number and Gilead is now putting a handle on its cup base with an entry above a 71.42 pivot. The XBI is giving a much broader look as there are essentially no components with a greater weighting than 1% in the fund, and it underscores the weakness within. It is well below both its downward sloping 50 and 200 day SMAs and with an RSI below 30 one could expect a bounce, but it will most likely be short-lived.

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