Shorts Running For Cover?
The month of January came to an end, not with a whimper, but a thrust higher for the Nasdaq. It has now recorded back to back 3% daily gainers, and I went back over 2021, and there were only two occasions that it happened on 3/1 and 12/7. The saying is nothing good happens below the 200 day SMA, but if one was long they have been overjoyed. Is it just a violent reaction that often occurs in a bear market, or was sentiment so washed out that stocks still have some room to run? My thought is the technical damage will take a lot longer than a couple of days to wear off. But long-term investors taking a shot at a bottom here could very well be rewarded. The SMH rose 5.2% Monday and the IGV rose almost 4%. Last week there was some bifurcation there as the SMH fell 3.7% in the largest WEEKLY volume in almost 2 years (capitulation?) while the IGV rose 1% in the best WEEKLY volume in at least 5 years. Bellwethers in both groups in NVDA and ADBE could give valuable overall market clues. These best-of-breed names are making a stand here. Of course, AMD reports tomorrow night and what a classic stick save at par it made last Friday. Below is the chart of ADBE and consider the very round 500 number a line in the sand.