Seasonality Tailwinds:
With the summer months kicking in when many tend to think of boring and dull, the chart below shows some decent seasonality factors for the Nasdaq, at least the last 4 years. For sure none of those years witnessed the first half decline that we have witnessed in 2022, but each CLOSED higher than it started. It may be a bit misleading as I went back and calculated the returns in July between 2018-2022 and the gains were up 1.2% in 2021, 6.8% in 2020, .4% in 2019, and 2.9% in 2018. A couple of pedestrian advances with the exception of 2002. This July, a third of the way in, we have gained 5.7% already. Is this month’s jump already baked in, or do we have more to go? Interestingly the best actor of the last 4, obviously the 6.8% move in 2020, was followed the next month (August ’20) with another MONTHLY advance of 8.5%.