Portly Industrials?

The industrials overall are feeling heavy to me. When I glanced at its daily chart this morning I was taken aback by how wide and loose trade has become in recent months, a hallmark bearish trait. In a recent Industrial Note last week we took a look at the MONTHLY chart and were a bit concerned with the last 3 months recording spinning top candles which are often a sign of fatigue at the very least and a very possible sign of a reversal in the prevailing trend. On a YTD basis, the XLI is barely positive up 1%, and is the seventh-best actor of the major 11 S&P sectors. Defense stocks like GD and NOC are trading in “bear market” territory each at or near the 20% threshold from their annual peak. DE has been making lower highs since the start of the year, and peer CAT is clinging on to a bearish descending triangle pivot near 210. UPS is flirting with a bear flag formation here too. These are some of the more visible names in the space. Overall the chart below of the WEEKLY XLI suggests some angst, especially if the 97 trigger in a bearish diamond pattern is taken out to the downside.

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