Line In The Sand:
The Nasdaq is holding up much better than many bears have been hoping for, and as long as it remains above the 12200 level (breakout in a bullish ascending triangle) the more bullish one has to become. Of course that could change very quickly with an undercut of that breakout but it sure seems that sentiment is as bearish as it has been in some time. The tech-heavy benchmark is still above a momentum 21-day EMA, although it did undercut it briefly two times in late April and early May. Now to be clear this note is chock full of short ideas, and names that have been underperforming in a strong technology space, but I also have to acknowledge what could happen as being open-minded is a must. The S&P 5, in AAPL MSFT AMZN NVDA, and GOOGL (responsible for the vast majority of market gains and top 5 holdings in the Nasdaq are the same except for META) all seem a bit extended here so we could see some weakness in the near term. But then again many have been waiting for that to occur. If you are bearish let PRICE confirm. The Nasdaq has recorded two doji candles at the 12000 area on 4/14 and 5/1 and Wednesday can be interpreted as a bearish hanging man. Both bulls and bears are on the edge which likely means a range-bound scenario.