Recession Fears:

With all the ongoing chatter about if one is to occur, perhaps we can take a look at some of the more prominent transportation plays for some clues. After all, if goods are being shipped around in firm form it should translate into somewhat decent PRICE action. But looking at the behavior of FDX UPS UNP NSC JBHT we see almost all of them in the red YTD, with the exception of FDX. And that name is acting a bit frail after a 4-week losing streak was interrupted by last week’s gain of 8%. UPS is now 29% off most recent 52-week highs (compared to FDX just 11% off its own annual peak) and since the start of August has advanced on a WEEKLY basis just three times. JBHT is lower 9 of the last 13 weeks and fell by a combined 14% the weeks ending 10/20-27. NSC is more than one quarter from its peak made last December. I think you get the picture, but the problem for bears is that most bearish markets bottom during recessions. And remember they are backward-looking and by the time it’s made official, we are often coming out of them. PRICE action in the markets overall may have reflected one. That being said I would like to see some of these bellwethers acting better.

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