Crude Awakening:  

Many have criticized oil as being too complacent with the chaos going on in the Middle East. And to be frank, I was one of them, but perhaps Crude is starting to sense a larger conflict on the near-term horizon. Or could it be it is forecasting a better economy? Or is China on the heels of making a comeback? All these scenarios I will leave up to economists and fundamentalists, but the PRICE action has been perking up now for the last 6 weeks. The chart below sports a bullish ascending triangle and a leap above 76 carries a measured move to 84. Its WEEKLY chart is finding comfort along the 200 WEEK SMA, although I would like to see its distance itself from the secular line, but it recorded a nice liftoff after spending roughly the same amount of weeks there between last May and July. And admire how 5 of the last 7 weeks were below the important line intraweek but all FIVE CLOSED above it. The MONTHLY chart is the concerning one, now on a 3-month losing streak, but volume has decreased with each successive month. The bullish ADX signal it received in early 2021 (green line crossing above red), repeated itself in mid-2023 but it proved to be a false one.

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