Consumer Rebellion:
The XLY has been showing some signs of softness with recent sloppy earnings reactions from some former leaders. Names like PVH Tuesday in the apparel space dropped more than 22% after the day before it was acting robustly trading at 52-week highs. Perhaps it will find some comfort at the rising 200-day SMA which aligns with the very round par number in the coming days. LULU cratered 16% on 3/22 and it too may find some bids in this area as it fills in a gap from the 10/13/23 session, although it has the look of a bear flag breakdown. MELI fell by double digits on 2/23 and has now carved out a bearish head and shoulders formation with a neckline at the very round 1500 number, and it continues to be outshined by domestic peer AMZN. Looking at the chart below of the XLY it sits just 3% off its most recent 52-week highs, but it feels important that it holds today’s intraday lows. On the MONTHLY chart of the XLY, notice March recorded a doji candle which often indicates at best indecision and worst a change in the prevailing direction. While not discussing AMZN or TSLA, which we have plenty the last few weeks, now HD has undercut its 50-day SMA for the first time in 5 months after a recent bull flag breakout. Is the consumer on edge?