Bellwether Bottoming?
The leading semis have been one of the only names that have been holding up. The old saying goes eventually they come for all of them. But the other side of the argument states that stocks that hold up best in the storm will be the first ones to charge out of the gate once the group catches a bid. The daily chart below of NVDA encapsulates that theme best here and there could be some good risk/reward here after Thursday’s bullish harami which CLOSED above its 50-day SMA after being below the line intraday. My feeling is that one can dip their toe in with a stop below the session low and if it holds a double bottom pattern is taking shape. Its WEEKLY chart incredibly met its measured move to 900 from the WEEKLY bull flag breakout, and it overshot it and last week recorded a doji candle which can often signal a change in the prevailing trend so let’s keep this on a short leash. Notice on the ratio chart against AMD this is vastly outperforming with NVDA up 76% YTD compared to AMD rising a scant 5% in 2024 thus far. That all being said this market is in a downtrend so this favors a move to the downside so respect your stop below 824.02 on a CLOSING basis.