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Nasdaq Thrust: Many like to proclaim a true rally can not occur without the financials. I would say technology is more important and the MONTHLY chart below of the Nasdaq shows the infrequent contact with the 50 MONTH SMA. It was nearly precise in touching the secular line and was a 50% retracement from the run from the very round 10000 to 20000 from October 2022 to last December. Where is its near-term likely path from here? The WEEKLY timeframe has a nice look to it, with a bullish piercing line and engulfing candle during the weeks ending 4/11 and 4/25, both rising by 7% (those were both the best returns since the week ending 11/11/22 that rose by 8.1%). Both CLOSED in the upper half of the WEEKLY range and it now has a path to the 50 WEEK SMA which is just above the 18000 figure. In hindsight, the rare contact with the oversold 30 RSI number was an excellent signal. Notice on the DAILY chart the third time was the charm in breaking above the bear flag breakdown, which did meet its measured move lower of roughly 2500 handles. My feeling is this still has another 1000 handle run, on the daily timeframe that will be near the declining 200-day SMA. If and when that occurs we can reassess from there.

Sanguine Approach: It is extremely hard to determine if we are closer to the bottom or the top here, and trying to catch the precise low is a fool's game. In this environment, it is best to be tactical, keep losses very small, and have plenty of cash on hand. If one ones to take the path less traveled, and look for long opportunities next week demand names that have some technical merit. The discretionary space as a whole has been a disaster thus far in 2025 with the XLY down more than 18%, the tenth best of the 11 major S&P sectors. Of course, this is due to TSLA now off 51% from most recent 52-week highs and the WEEKLY chart shows it has advanced just 2 weeks this year, although the last 4 have recorded two bullish hammers and two inverted ones. AMZN is on a 9-week losing streak, its worst in at least 5 years dating back to an 8-week run the weeks ending between 4/1-5/20/22. Notice those were not the ultimate lows but it did push firmly off the very round par number, before the time frame between August 2022 and the rest of the year never recorded back-to-back WEEKLY gains. Looking under the hood however on Friday there were names displaying solid relative strength. Below is the daily chart of FLUT, a Druckenmiller play, and could be a good play after a doji candle Friday at the very round 200 number.

Not Recessionary Behavior:  Is copper strength signaling that a recession is not in the near-term future, or is it forecasting continued China firmness? That is a question for those who try and look smart. We are just trying to make money, and the daily chart below shows how leading instruments will offer add-on buy points on the way UP, contrary to popular opinion. As well, we know the best breakouts tend to work right away and that occurred with the move above 4.45 and now is sporting a bull flag formation. Notice the double bottom at 4 with a bullish hammer on 11/14, and the completion of a morning star on 1/3, and the golden cross from the beginning of March. The MONTHLY chart has a sanguine look with a bull flag that started at the COVID era lows right at the "round" $2. A CLOSE above a 4.75 pivot in March would be the first in the last decade and could carry a measured move to 6.50. There were 6 months that traded above 4.75 intramonth dating back to May 2021 but ZERO of them finished above 4.75 (March 2022 CLOSED right at 4.75).

Nasdaq Travails: Markets tend to bottom in a smooth, gradual, rounded fashion and top of volatile trade. The latter could be described as too what is going on currently with the Nasdaq. It is now finding difficulty at the very round 20000 number for the fourth time in just the last 6 weeks. Trade has been a bit wide and loose, hallmark bearish traits, and keep in mind the tech-heavy benchmark has doubled in PRICE since the consecutive doji candlesticks the first 2 weeks of 2023 (see my pinned tweet). Is fatigue setting in or at the very least does it need to continue to remain at this lofty altitude and trade sideways before a possible further advance? Remember I have stated that my belief was the Nasdaq would have trouble at 20000 due to the bearish MONTHLY shooting star candlestick in December, and we are now extended almost 30% above the 50 MONTH SMA. The stalling at the double bottom pivot on the daily chart below has to make one already cautious and the fact that next week starts a bevy of earnings, with AAPL META MSFT TSLA, and IBM all reporting adds to the concern. Mister Softee in my opinion has the best set-up after recently breaking above a double bottom pivot of 434.42. A move back toward that breakout and the gap fill from the 1/21 session should be bought by long-term shareholders.