2 Dec 2022

Technology Sector Review: 12/5/22

By |2022-12-02T16:31:43-05:00Friday|

Diamond In The Rough: Apple commands clout in the markets being the largest company in the world via market cap. What happens with the stock has dramatic effects on domestic benchmarks, and surely it is among many of the top 10 mutual and hedge fund holdings globally. Since a spirited run from 130-176 in July-August, the name has been floundering and has given back the vast majority of the move. It now has the look of a bearish descending triangle but a break ABOVE the 150 level could see a powerful move as from FALSE moves come fast and furious ones in the OPPOSITE direction. The chart below shows that would also be a break above a diamond pattern. Is the fact that AAPL is lagging behind technology an ominous sign or is the market's performance without its participation a bullish tell? Of course, we will not know that until hindsight but with the Nasdaq up 8% over the last month period with AAPL higher by just 2%, if Apple does begin to cooperate could that ignite a robust technology run? The 150 level will be a key to watch. 

30 Nov 2022

Consumer Discretionary Sector Review: 12/1/22

By |2022-11-30T17:16:01-05:00Wednesday|

Rooting For The Underdog: Often we like to compare the XRT to the XLY to judge sentiment or define somewhat the "risk on-off" relationship regarding the consumer sector. From the ratio chart below it can easily be determined that the names outside of TSLA and AMZN are acting better than the top-heavy XLY. It is now nearing 3 months of outperformance and expect that relationship to continue as we know trends are much more likely to persist than reverse themselves. As AMZN has gained on a WEEKLY basis just 4 times since mid-August and is 46% from most recent 52-week highs, TSLA is 53% off its annual peak made in January at the very round 400 number (although it did record a WEEKLY bullish hammer off its rising 200 day SMA last week). They say do not judge a book by its cover and if you look under the hood perhaps the consumer group is acting better than what the XLY is conveying. RCL has nearly doubled in PRICE from 30-60 since July as a leader in the cruise space, HOG is also bull flagging, BKE in specialty retail is building the right side of a WEEKLY cup base, WING jumped 100 handles from late May. Do your homework and feed capital to the leaders, and starve the laggards. 

29 Nov 2022

Consumer Discretionary Sector Review: 11/30/22

By |2022-11-29T16:38:59-05:00Tuesday|

Discount Dean: The action in the discount retail arena has been noteworthy. There have been some outsized moves with WMT coming to mind. It now sits just 5% off most recent 52-week highs and is back above the highs of the dreadful week ending 5/20 that capsized almost 20%. TJX in the last 2 months alone has traded in a very bullish taut manner trading from 60-80 and has broken above a double bottom pivot of 67.90 and a bull flag formation in Q4. TGT is still a dawdler, 35% off its annual peak. DLTR filled in an upside gap from the 8/24 session recently but has since gone soft with a second straight poorly received earnings release. Below is the chart of FIVE, which has quietly been gaining momentum higher in the shadows of its aforementioned peers. The stock is higher 14 of the last 21 weeks, with 4 of those weeks jumping by at least 8%. Over the last 3 months, it has gained more than 20%, while peers OLLI DG and TGT rose by 7, 6, and 3%. I think this stock sees 200 sometime in the first half of 2023. Use a stop of 144.

28 Nov 2022

Consumer Discretionary Sector Review: 11/29/22

By |2022-11-28T16:07:42-05:00Monday|

Crude Awakening? Anyone who was driven down the East coast of the US from NY to FL has undoubtedly seen a plethora of CBRL locations. I am old enough to remember that this casual diner used to be thought of as a barometer of PRICES at the pump, as they reside mostly where consumers stop to eat and fill up the tank. Could its formidable PRICE action be a canary in the coal mine that energy costs may continue to fall? The stock is still 18% off most recent 52-week highs, but first, give it credit for not retesting the June-July lows in a show of strength. Last week completed a bullish three-week tight pattern with the last 3 all CLOSING tautly, all within just 1.11 of each other. It trades in an illiquid fashion and REPORTS earnings this Friday before the open (was lower for SEVEN straight reactions and 9 of the last 10) so use this as an illustration of what may occur in energy. A drop in crude can keep this nascent discretionary sector jump going.

21 Nov 2022

Industrial Sector Review: 11/22/22

By |2022-11-21T16:57:09-05:00Monday|

Small Buisness Optimism? To be certain I am far from an economist and have zero interest in becoming one. But it is widely known that small business is very important as they generate nearly all net job gains. When this segment of the economy is healthy it could be a good sign overall. Some companies have their pulse on this theme better than other and below is the chart of CTAS which I have closely followed in this regard. They are primarily a uniform play, however, do a multitude of services for small businesses. Again I am strictly a technician and therefore believe the PRICE action of a chart can tell you a lot about the industry it is in and also where it can be going. CTAS is essentially UNCH YTD but trading right off all-time highs and last week (up 1.2% as the XLI dropped .1%) bullishly digested the big 11/11 week-ending gain of 8.1%. At the expense of sounding like a broken record, we favor names that never went on to touch their June-July lows. This name could be ready to set up an add-on on the way UP with a bull flag, something the leaders very often do.