Markets rallied ahead of an anticipated nonfarm payroll job number, after the prior months anemic 74,000 figure. Although benchmarks rallied and finished strong for a third consecutive day, volume did not back up the move, solidifying the recent trend. Looking at the Nasdaq for example, the down days of 1/24, 1/27, 1/29 and 2/3 were lower by 2,1,1 and 2.6% all on heavy trade. Notice how each of those days closed in the lower half or right at the bottom of the daily trading range. This suggests big players such as institutions have very little conviction in this move. The move in price though does have to be respected with the big jobs number premarket. I would expect a pop and probable resistance at the round 4100 handle on the Nasdaq which aligns with the 50 day SMA. A trend change has taken place. Todays winning groups included those that would indicate a powerful economic recovery underway, that I disagree with, but my opinion means little. The tape trumps all. Energy, materials, industrials and financials led the way. VMC was a standout Thursday rising 9% after reporting earnings. It was a name we profiled back on December 13th with a possible breakout from a 60.24 flat base trigger or an ascending triangle formation. VMC was up almost 4% last week, possibly foreshadowing, what was to come this week. Volume trends have been excellent as of late. On the losing end in the energy group CHK is on pace for a second large weekly loss since November. It is lower by 9% this week almost duplicating its loss the week ending 11/8/13 when it fell 8%. The silver lining is that its receiving good 200 day SMA support.
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