ChartSmarter Monday Game Plan 12/1/14

Markets gained for a 6th consecutive week with the Nasdaq garnering the best return with a 1.7% weekly advance. The S&P 500 rose fractionally by .2% for the week after energy and the critical transport group took it on the chin Friday after the OPEC decision on Thanksgiving. With one month left in 2014 the Nasdaq is ahead by 14.7% YTD while the S&P 500 is up 11.9%. If the Nasdaq completes the year higher than the S&P 500 it will be the third consecutive year it does so. The S&P 500 however can boast, without a December collapse, that is has not had a negative YTD return since the 38.5% drop in 2008 (it was UNCH the year 2011). The transport group as we mentioned earlier took it on the chin Friday in a bifurcated manner however. The airline and ground freight groups which benefit from a falling crude price rose, while the rails many of which now transport the resource caved. Names like UPS and FDX rose smartly Friday, although both were temporarily “grounded” by the round numbers of 110 and 180, pun intended. Below is a chart of UPS exactly how it appeared in our Wednesday 11/5 Game Plan. On the daily chart now you will notice that the 105.19 cup base pivot point taken out originally on 11/3 was tested almost to the penny and held firm. It is now up 5 handles from that trigger. Other groups affected positively by the oil debacle were the retailers, although some of the discount names seem to be responding better to the recent developments. Names like WMT DLTR TGT COST are behaving very well.