ChartSmarter Monday Game Plan 7/6/15

Markets finished the holiday shortened week quietly, but Mondays damage still looms large. Early gains Friday turned into mild losses and the benchmarks ended the session basically UNCH. For the week the Nasdaq lost 1.4% and has now fell 7 of the last 10. It CLOSED just above the round 5000 figure but Mondays drop of 2.4%, slicing its 50 day SMA, was just to heavy to overcome. Wednesday and Thursday each finished in the lower half of the daily range, a negative sign. Year to date the tech heavy index is still ahead nicely by 5.8%. The S&P 500 tried to fight back from Monday’s sizable 2% loss finding support at its 200 day SMA. It dropped 1.2% for the week and is clawing onto a .9% advance thus far in 2015. Interestingly for the first times i the last 10 quarters the S&P 500 dropped, albeit by just a .2% margin. One gets the feeling that the tape is getting heavier by the day and although it seems prognosticators have been calling for a correction of some type for a very lengthy period of time one must remember even a broken clock is right twice a day. They will have their day and we have been bearish in our views, but bullish in our holdings, for as technicians we will only act once prices CONFIRM. Perhaps weakness in important sectors such as transports and energy will finally mean something. The IYT has declined 11 of the last 15 weeks since losing its 200 day SMA. The XLE has fallen 7 of the last 8 weeks and looks to be ready to test an important level in the 72 area which held last December and January. A piercing of that line in a long term descending triangle pattern could get ugly.