Are We Waiting Too Long For Semiconductors To Cooperate:
No one will deny the importance of the semiconductor group. Their long dominance in technology may be a sign of the economy turning mostly into a services based economy, favoring software. The SMH was a laggard in 2018 making lower highs that year in March, June and August. This year it is acting better and its chart now sports a cup with handle with a potential 116.06 pivot. Volume within the handle the last 5 sessions, is acting like one would want with falling volume. Tuesday recorded a bullish engulfing candle 9% from most recent 52 week highs. There has been chatter that the groups prospects are improving, but one has to incorporate time into a bullish stance. The longer it continues to underperform peer groups, the less attractive their posture will be.
“Old Tech” Beatdown:
As markets evolve and age, new leaders are born and old names which are unable to adapt wither away. Some mature names are able to adjust and thrive. Whether that occurs because they have the scale to acquire competitors on the rise, or they have the ability to pluck best in breed management teams is irrelevant. PRICE action is the ultimate arbiter. Perhaps it is unfair to compare MSFT to once respected peers back in the day, but we are going to do so anyway. Below is the ratio chart against HPQ, and it shows how MSFT has left this name in the dust. We could have used other denominators like FFIV or JNPR, and it would have yielded similar results. This name is the number one component in the Nasdaq and S&P 500 for a reason.
Short ideas have been hard to come by successfully on this years strong overall technology tape. Where one can begin to look for names to lay out would be laggards in a strong group that failed to participate. One name that could be an example is the semiconductor play AMBA and how it appeared in our 7/1 Technology Report. It is ABOVE our suggested pivot, but has not been able to CLOSE above the 46 stop. Wednesday it finished fractionally lower with an SMH higher by 1%. It has since traded above the 50 day SMA, but has not decisively cleared the upside gap fill. Keep it simple as a CLOSE above 46 means the trade is wrong.